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Finite Sample Effects Of Pure Seasonal Mean Shifts On Dickey-Fuller Tests: A Simulation Study

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  • ARTUR C. B. DA SILVA LOPES

Abstract

In this paper, it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts-i.e. seasonal structural breaks which affect only the seasonal cycle-really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests. Both size and power properties are affected by such breaks but using the t-sig method for lag selection induces a stabilizing effect. Although most results are reassuring when the t-sig method is used, some concern with this type of breaks cannot be disregarded. Further evidence on the poor performance of the t-sig method for quarterly time series in standard (no-break) cases is also presented. Copyright � 2008 The Author. Journal compilation � 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 528-538

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:76:y:2008:i:5:p:528-538

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