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Fire In The Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model For Policy Impact Analysis

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  • Eugenio Y. Arima
  • Cynthia S. Simmons
  • Robert T. Walker
  • Mark A. Cochrane

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm‐gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road‐paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Y. Arima & Cynthia S. Simmons & Robert T. Walker & Mark A. Cochrane, 2007. "Fire In The Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model For Policy Impact Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 541-567, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:47:y:2007:i:3:p:541-567
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.2007.00519.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fujita,Masahisa, 1991. "Urban Economic Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521396455.
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    1. Eugenio Arima & Paulo Barreto & Farzad Taheripour & Angel Aguiar, 2021. "Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    2. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Nuryartono, Nunung, 2021. "Palm oil and the politics of deforestation in Indonesia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Ferreira, Marcelo D P & Feres, Jose, 2018. "The Role of Climate Risk on Land Allocation in Brazilian Amazon," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274436, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    5. Ryo Takahashi & Keijiro Otsuka, 2021. "Beyond Ostrom: Randomized Experiment of the Impact of Individualized Tree Rights on Forest Management in Ethiopia," Working Papers 2022, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    6. Elías Cisneros & Sophie Lian Zhou & Jan Börner, 2015. "Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-24, September.
    7. Marchand, Sébastien, 2012. "The relationship between technical efficiency in agriculture and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 166-175.
    8. Jorge Hargrave & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2013. "Economic Causes of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Panel Data Analysis for the 2000s," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 471-494, April.
    9. Lema, D. & Egolf, P., 2018. "Forest fires and economic incentives: Impact of forest protection laws in Argentina," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275984, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Cisneros, Elias & Zhou, Sophie & Borner, Jan, 2015. "Forest Law enforcement through district blacklisting in the Brazlian Amazon," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211547, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Altanshagai Batmunkh & Agus Dwi Nugroho & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Zoltan Lakner, 2022. "Global Challenges and Responses: Agriculture, Economic Globalization, and Environmental Sustainability in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Rodolfo Prates & Carlos Bacha, 2012. "An Econometric Study Of Deforestation In The Brazil’S Amazonian Municipalities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p651, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Edwards, Ryan B. & Naylor, Rosamond L. & Higgins, Matthew M. & Falcon, Walter P., 2020. "Causes of Indonesia’s forest fires," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves da Silva, 2011. "Economic Causes ofDeforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: an Empirical Analysis of the2000s," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 190, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Morello, Thiago Fonseca & Parry, Luke & Markusson, Nils & Barlow, Jos, 2017. "Policy instruments to control Amazon fires: A simulation approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 199-222.
    16. Fonseca Morello, Thiago & Marchetti Ramos, Rossano & O. Anderson, Liana & Owen, Nathan & Rosan, Thais Michele & Steil, Lara, 2020. "Predicting fires for policy making: Improving accuracy of fire brigade allocation in the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Santiago, Thaís Muniz Ottoni & Caviglia-Harris, Jill & Pereira de Rezende, José Luiz, 2018. "Carrots, Sticks and the Brazilian Forest Code: the promising response of small landowners in the Amazon," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 38-51.

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