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Real and Financial Industry Booms and Busts

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  • GERARD HOBERG
  • GORDON PHILLIPS

Abstract

We examine how product market competition affects firm cash flows and stock returns in industry booms and busts. Our results show how real and financial factors interact in industry business cycles. In competitive industries, we find that high industry-level stock market valuation, investment, and financing are followed by sharply lower operating cash flows and abnormal stock returns. Analyst estimates are positively biased and returns comove more. In concentrated industries these relations are weak and generally insignificant. Our results are consistent with participants in competitive industries not fully internalizing the negative externality of industry competition on cash flows and stock returns. Copyright (c) 2009 the American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 65 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 45-86

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:65:y:2010:i:1:p:45-86

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerard Hoberg & Gordon Phillips, 2010. "Product Market Synergies and Competition in Mergers and Acquisitions: A Text-Based Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3773-3811, October.
  2. Maria Cecilia Bustamante, 2011. "Strategic investment, industry concentration and the cross section of returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37454, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Vivek Sharma, 2011. "Stock returns and product market competition: beyond industry concentration," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 283-299, October.
  4. Datta, Sudip & Iskandar-Datta, Mai & Sharma, Vivek, 2011. "Product market pricing power, industry concentration and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1352-1366, June.
  5. Alimov, Azizjon, 2014. "Product market competition and the value of corporate cash: Evidence from trade liberalization," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 122-139.
  6. Bazdresch, Santiago, 2011. "Product differentiation and systematic risk: theory and empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 35504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2011.
  7. Datta, Sudip & Iskandar-Datta, Mai & Singh, Vivek, 2013. "Product market power, industry structure, and corporate earnings management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3273-3285.
  8. Jain, Bharat A. & Kini, Omesh & Shenoy, Jaideep, 2011. "Vertical divestitures through equity carve-outs and spin-offs: A product markets perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 594-615, June.
  9. Valta, Philip, 2012. "Competition and the cost of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 661-682.
  10. Maria Cecillia Bustamante, 2011. "Strategic Investment, Industry Concentration and the Cross Section of Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp681, Financial Markets Group.
  11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson, 2013. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," NBER Working Papers 19246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Pricing deviation, misvaluation comovement, and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5285-5299.

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