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Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model

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  • ANDREW W. LO
  • JIANG WANG

Abstract

We derive an intertemporal asset pricing model and explore its implications for trading volume and asset returns. We show that investors trade in only two portfolios: the market portfolio, and a hedging portfolio that is used to hedge the risk of changing market conditions. We empirically identify the hedging portfolio using weekly volume and returns data for U.S. stocks, and then test two of its properties implied by the theory: Its return should be an additional risk factor in explaining the cross section of asset returns, and should also be the best predictor of future market returns. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.01005.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2805-2840

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:6:p:2805-2840

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 2008. "The factor structure of time-varying conditional volume," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 251-264, March.
  2. Martijn Cremers & Jianping Mei, 2004. "Turning Over Turnover," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm429, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2008.
  3. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
  5. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter & Spatt, Chester, 2003. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing Under Heterogenous Information," IDEI Working Papers 159, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  6. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolios," FAME Research Paper Series rp136, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  7. Omid Sabbaghi & Navid Sabbaghi, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the Carbon Financial Instrument," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-234, April.
  8. Erdem, Orhan & Yüksel, Serkan & Arık, Evren, 2013. "Trading Puzzle, Puzzling Trade," MPRA Paper 46804, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Feb 2013.
  9. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Steven L. Heston & Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2010. "Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1369-1407, 08.
  11. Zhong-Guo Zhou, 2010. "The high-volume return premium: evidence from the Chinese stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
  12. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
  13. Hiroshi Konno & Yuuhei Morita & Rei Yamamoto, 2010. "A maximal predictability portfolio using absolute deviation reformulation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 47-60, January.
  14. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference for Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolio," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  15. Gaiyan Zhang, 2007. "A Model of Price, Volume, and Sequential Information," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(3), pages 207-223, December.

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