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Public Perceptions of Earthquake Risk and the Impact on Land Pricing: The Case of the Uemachi Fault Line in Japan

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  • Tao Gu
  • Masayuki Nakagawa
  • Makoto Saito
  • Hisaki Yamaga

Abstract

In this paper, we explore how land pricing reflects public perceptions of earthquake risk using officially appraised prices of land situated along the Uemachi fault, which lies on a north–south axis in the east of Japan's Osaka Prefecture. We reveal that land pricing along this fault has only incorporated fault‐driven earthquake risk since residents and policy‐makers first realized its potential following damage to the southern part of Hyogo Prefecture in a January 1995 earthquake along the Rokko–Awaji fault (an event now known as the Hanshin–Awaji earthquake). We find evidence of a discount of 20% in nonresidential land prices for every kilometre closer to the Uemachi fault line since the Hanshin–Awaji earthquake.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Gu & Masayuki Nakagawa & Makoto Saito & Hisaki Yamaga, 2018. "Public Perceptions of Earthquake Risk and the Impact on Land Pricing: The Case of the Uemachi Fault Line in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 374-393, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:69:y:2018:i:4:p:374-393
    DOI: 10.1111/jere.12173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Naoi, Michio & Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto, 2009. "Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 658-669, November.
    2. Brookshire, David S & Thayer. Mark A & Tschirhart, John & Schulze, William D, 1985. "A Test of the Expected Utility Model: Evidence from Earthquake Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 369-389, April.
    3. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
    4. Masayuki Nakagawa & Makoto Saito & Hisaki Yamaga, 2009. "Earthquake Risks And Land Prices: Evidence From The Tokyo Metropolitan Area," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 208-222, June.
    5. Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 1997. "The housing question in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 613-641, November.
    6. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    7. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
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    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Tao & Nakagawa, Masayuki & Saito, Makoto & Yamaga, Hisaki, 2021. "Estimation of nonlinear functions using coarsely discrete measures in panel data: The relationship between land prices and earthquake risk in the Tokyo Metropolitan District," Discussion Paper Series 729, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Chien-Yuan Sher & Nai-Wei Chen & Yu-Hsi Liu & Ryan H. Murphy, 2021. "The impact of soil-liquefaction information disclosures on housing prices: evidence from Kaohsiung, Taiwan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 217-241, April.
    3. Marco Modica & Roberto Zoboli & Fabrizio Meroni & Vera Pessina & Thea Squarcina & Mario Locati, 2021. "‘Near miss’ housing market response to the 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of housing quality and risk perception," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(11), pages 2293-2309, August.
    4. Mizuki Kawabata & Michio Naoi & Shohei Yasuda, 2022. "Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. OGURA Yoshiaki & NGUYEN Duc Giang & NGUYEN Thu Ha, 2022. "Floods and Loan Reallocation: New evidence," Discussion papers 22088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R22 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other Demand
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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