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Investment Horizon Effects

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  • Javier Gil‐Bazo

Abstract

Boudry and Gray (2003) have documented that the optimal buy‐and‐hold demand for Australian stocks is not necessarily increasing in the investment horizon when returns are predictable. Such finding is in contrast with Barberis (2000) who shows that positive monotonic horizon effects predominate for US stocks. Using a closed‐form approximation to the asset allocation problem, this paper relates the return dynamics to the investor's portfolio choice for different investment horizons. In the special case of a single risky asset, it is shown that return predictability under stationarity may induce both positive and negative horizon effects in the optimal allocation to the risky asset. The paper extends previous empirical results by solving for the optimal portfolio when two risky assets with predictable returns are available for investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Gil‐Bazo, 2006. "Investment Horizon Effects," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1‐2), pages 179-202, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006:i:1-2:p:179-202
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.01098.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Walter Boudry & Philip Gray, 2003. "Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1305-1326.
    2. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
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    4. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    6. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    7. Walter Boudry & Philip Gray, 2003. "Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9‐10), pages 1305-1326, December.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    9. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    11. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
    2. Eunhee Lee & Chang Kim & In-Moo Kim, 2015. "Equity premium over different investment horizons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1169-1187, May.

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