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Combining Bond Rating Forecasts Using Logit

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  • Kamstra, Mark
  • Kennedy, Peter
  • Suan, Teck-Kin

Abstract

Companies sometimes use statistical analysis to anticipate their bond ratings or a change in the rating. However, different statistical models can yield different ratings forecasts, and there is no clear rule for which model is preferable. We use several forecasting methods to predict bond ratings in the transportation and industrial sectors listed by Moody's bond rating service. A variant of the ordered-logit regression-combining method of Kamstra and Kennedy 1998 yields statistically significant, quantitatively meaningful improvements over its competitors, with very little computational cost. Copyright 2001 by MIT Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal The Financial Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 75-96

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Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:36:y:2001:i:2:p:75-96

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Web page: http://www.easternfinance.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
  2. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang , Yu-Li & Hasan , Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Research Discussion Papers 13/2012, Bank of Finland.
  3. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
  4. Alexander B. Matthies, 2013. "Empirical Research on Corporate Credit-Ratings: A Literature Review," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Rosemarie Bröker Bone & Eduardo P Ribeiro, 2013. "Informational content of corporate ratings in a developing country: the case of Brazilian firms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 35-45.
  6. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  7. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  8. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.

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