IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finmgt/v43y2014i2p445-466.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Paul A. Borochin

Abstract

type="main"> I introduce and test a method to identify market expectations about value creation in mergers. Post-announcement market prices reflect beliefs about both merged and standalone firm values, and the likelihood of either outcome. Stock prices alone do not contain sufficient information to identify these latent beliefs. By adding exchange-traded stock option data, I deliver a clear decomposition of observed value change into two parts: 1) value creation and 2) new information about standalone value. Previous research has struggled to disentangle the two. This decomposition provides a strong and practical measure of the market's expectations about value creation in a merger.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul A. Borochin, 2014. "When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 445-466, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:445-466
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/fima.12026
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhagat, Sanjai & Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Noah, Robert, 2005. "Do tender offers create value? New methods and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 3-60, April.
    2. Pekka Hietala & Steven N. Kaplan & David T. Robinson, 2003. "What is the Price of Hubris? Using Takeover Battles to Infer Overpayments and Synergies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(3), Fall.
    3. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
    4. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    5. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    6. Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1987. "Corporate Takeover Bids, Methods of Payment, and Bidding Firms' Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 943-963, September.
    7. Boyan Jovanovic & Serguey Braguinsky, 2004. "Bidder Discounts and Target Premia in Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 46-56, March.
    8. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    9. Ajay Subramanian, 2004. "Option Pricing on Stocks in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 795-829, April.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Audra L. Boone & J. Harold Mulherin, 2007. "How Are Firms Sold?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 847-875, April.
    13. Kathryn Barraclough & David T. Robinson & Tom Smith & Robert E. Whaley, 2013. "Using Option Prices to Infer Overpayments and Synergies in M&A Transactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 695-722.
    14. Michael C. Jensen, 2005. "Agency Costs of Overvalued Equity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 34(1), Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borochin, Paul & Yang, Jie, 2017. "Options, equity risks, and the value of capital structure adjustments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 150-178.
    2. Huy Nguyen Anh Pham & Vikash Ramiah & Imad Moosa, 2020. "The effects of environmental regulation on the stock market: the French experience," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3279-3304, December.
    3. Carolina Salva & Xiqian Zhang, 2022. "Financial versus strategic bidders and underpricing as an acquisition motive," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1830-1862, October.
    4. Konstantinos Konstantaras & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2019. "Is stock liquidity transferred and upgraded in acquisitions? Evidence from liquidity synergies in US freeze-outs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 179-216, November.
    5. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    6. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    7. Han, Jianlei & Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Pan, Zheyao (Terry) & Smith, Tom, 2019. "The wealth effects of the announcement of the Australian carbon pricing scheme," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 399-409.
    8. Paul Borochin & Jie Yang, 2016. "Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    10. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    11. Paul Borochin & John L. Glascock & Ran Lu-Andrews & Jie Yang, 2017. "Using Option Market Liquidity to Predict REIT Leverage Changes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-154, August.
    12. Grinblatt, Mark & Wan, Kam-Ming, 2020. "State pricing, effectively complete markets, and corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tilan Tang, 2015. "Bidder's Gain: Evidence from Termination Returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 457-487, December.
    2. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    3. Andreou, Christoforos K. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Panayides, Photis M., 2021. "Distress risk anomaly and misvaluation," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    4. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & Rene M. Stulz, 2004. "Do Acquirers With More Uncertain Growth Prospects Gain Less From Acquisitions?," NBER Working Papers 10773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ordu, Umut & Schweizer, Denis, 2015. "Executive compensation and informed trading in acquiring firms around merger announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 260-280.
    6. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Wealth Destruction on a Massive Scale? A Study of Acquiring‐Firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 757-782, April.
    7. Malmendier, Ulrike & Opp, Marcus M. & Saidi, Farzad, 2016. "Target revaluation after failed takeover attempts: Cash versus stock," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 92-106.
    8. Debarati Bhattacharya & Wei-Hsien Li, 2020. "Wealth effects of relative firm value in M&A deals: reallocation of physical versus intangible assets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1513-1548, November.
    9. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-178, February.
    10. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Enrico Moretti & Florian S Peters, 2018. "Winning by Losing: Evidence on the Long-run Effects of Mergers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 3212-3264.
    12. Alexandridis, G. & Antypas, N. & Travlos, N., 2017. "Value creation from M&As: New evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 632-650.
    13. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    14. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    15. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    16. Li, Lin & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2018. "Information uncertainty and target valuation in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-107.
    17. Zhang, Yongshen & Zhang, Qing & Yu, Xiaoliang & Ma, Qiushu, 2023. "Equity overvaluation, insider trading activity, and M&A premium: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Harford, Jarrad & Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Powell, Ronan, 2012. "The sources of value destruction in acquisitions by entrenched managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 247-261.
    19. Renneboog, Luc & Vansteenkiste, Cara, 2019. "Failure and success in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 650-699.
    20. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:445-466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.