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A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets

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  • Delroy M. Hunter
  • David P. Simon
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    Abstract

    "This paper uses a bivariate GARCH framework to examine the lead-lag relations and the conditional correlations between 10-year US government bond returns and their counterparts from the UK, Germany, and Japan. We find that while mean and volatility spillovers exist between the major international bond markets, they are much weaker than those between equity markets. The results also indicate that the correlations between the US and other major bond market returns are time varying and are driven by changing macroeconomic and market conditions. However, in contrast to the finding that the benefits of international diversification in equity markets evaporate during high-stress periods, we find that the benefits of diversification across major government bond markets do not decrease during periods of extremely high bond market volatility or following extremely negative US and foreign bond returns." Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 463-482

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:463-482

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    Cited by:
    1. Polwitoon, Sirapat & Tawatnuntachai, Oranee, 2006. "Diversification benefits and persistence of US-based global bond funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2767-2786, October.
    2. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2009. "Benchmark bonds interactions under regime shifts," Working Papers 103, Bank of Greece.
    3. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," MPRA Paper 24836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2010.
    4. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
    5. Galvani, Valentina & Behnamian, Aslan, 2009. "A Comparative Analysis of the Returns on Provincial and Federal Canadian Bonds," Working Papers 2009-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    6. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    7. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.

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