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Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia

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  • J. D. PITCHFORD

Abstract

Many observers have attributed the high unemployment experienced in Australia in the 1970s to the rises in real wages which have occurred in the decade. An alternative or additional hypothesis is that unemployment has resulted from policy directed at controlling inflation and that this has been exacerbated by the occurrence of adverse external factors, particularly bul not solely the oil price shocks, which have made inflation more difficult than otherwise to control. The results of econometric tests suggest that a significant portion of fluctuations in the unemployment rate can be explained by real wage movements, and as well monetary policy through its effects on the real money supply also seems to affect unemployment. Both real wage rises and monetary restrictions appear to have contributed to the jump in unemployment in 1974–75, and since then the continuing high and rising unemployment rate is closely associated with the low growth rate of the real money supply.

Suggested Citation

  • J. D. Pitchford, 1983. "Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(2), pages 118-131, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:2:p:118-131
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1983.tb00588.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    3. H. N. Johnston & R. B. Campbell & R. M. Simes, 1978. "The Impact Of Wages And Prices On Unemployment," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(60), pages 18-37, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    2. P. K. Trtvedi & J. N. Alexander, 1988. "Incorporating International Competitiveness into the Demand for Labour Function: Some Issues of Specification and Interpretation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(3), pages 196-208, September.
    3. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. P. K. Trivedi & G. M. Baker, 1985. "Equilibrium Unemployment in Australia: Concepts and Measurement," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(3), pages 629-643, September.

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