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Hong Kong'S Inflation And Deflation Under The Us Dollar Peg: The Balassa‐Samuelson Effect Or Export Price Shocks?

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  • Hiroyuki IMAI

Abstract

Hong Kong's US dollar peg, adopted in 1983, has failed to deliver price stability. Hong Kong experienced high inflation before the Asian financial crisis and prolonged deflation after it. The annual rate of inflation (GDP‐deflator based) was 7.4% in the first period (1985–97) and −2.0% in the second (1998–2007). There was no clear trend for the inflation rate to converge to the US level. The nominal anchor via a fixed exchange rate in Hong Kong had an upward and downward drift in the order of 4% from the US inflation rate, casting doubt on the anchor's efficacy. Despite Hong Kong's high output growth relative to that of the United States, the Balassa‐Samuelson effect was not the main factor behind the pre‐Asian crisis inflation. Price shocks in service exports played a major role in Hong Kong's general prices through the two periods.

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  • Hiroyuki IMAI, 2010. "Hong Kong'S Inflation And Deflation Under The Us Dollar Peg: The Balassa‐Samuelson Effect Or Export Price Shocks?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 48(3), pages 319-344, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:48:y:2010:i:3:p:319-344
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1746-1049.2010.00110.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsz H. Hung & Yum K. Kwan, 2022. "Hong Kong's New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Sticky information or sticky price?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 42-55, February.
    2. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Junji Yamada, 2012. "Why Did Large-scale Deflation Occur? What Did It Bring About?: From Hong Kong's Experiences in the First Half of the 2000s," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 8(1), pages 93-122, June.
    3. Quah Chee-Heong, 2019. "China’s Dollar-linked Hong Kong during the Global Crisis," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 38(67), pages 95-121, February.
    4. Pym Manopimoke, 2012. "Hong Kong Inflation Dynamics: Trend and Cycle Relationships with the U.S. and China," Working Papers 232012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Boon Lee, 2011. "Distribution Trade Sector Output and Productivity Performance: A Case Study of Singapore and Hong Kong 2001-2008," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 270, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.

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