IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v14y1996i2p26-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Severity Of Economic Fluctuations Under A Balanced Budget Amendment

Author

Listed:
  • CHARLES L. WEISE

Abstract

This paper uses a vector autoregression model to estimate the role of fiscal and monetary policy stabilizers during the last four U.S. recessions. The data show that both types of stabilizers have had a large stabilizing effect. These results imply that adopting a balanced budget rule would increase greatly the severity of future recessions and require the Federal Reserve to respond much more strongly to economic fluctuations than is currently the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Weise, 1996. "Severity Of Economic Fluctuations Under A Balanced Budget Amendment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(2), pages 26-40, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:14:y:1996:i:2:p:26-40
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1996.tb00611.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1996.tb00611.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1996.tb00611.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    3. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    5. Keith M. Carlson, 1987. "Federal fiscal policy since the Employment Act of 1946," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 14-29.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martner Fanta, Ricardo, 2000. "Automatic fiscal stabilizers," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. Jonathan Millar, 1997. "The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Staff Working Papers 97-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    2. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    5. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    6. John Geweke & David E. Runkle, 1995. "A fine time for monetary policy?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Win), pages 18-31.
    7. Enrique M. Quilis(1), "undated". "Modelos Bvar: Especificación, Estimación E Inferencia," Working Papers 8-02 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
    8. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    9. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    10. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    11. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    12. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    13. Gediminas Adomavicius & Jesse Bockstedt & Alok Gupta, 2012. "Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 397-417, June.
    14. Mark Wheeler, 1991. "Causality in the United Kingdom: Results from an Open Economy," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 439-449, Oct-Dec.
    15. Francisco F. R. Ramos, 1996. "Forecasting market shares using VAR and BVAR models: A comparison of their forecasting performance," Econometrics 9601003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Richard M. Todd, 1988. "Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers 384, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression," International Finance Discussion Papers 682, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Jose Tavares & Rossen Valkanov, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    19. James B. Bullard & John W. Keating, 1994. "Superneutrality in postwar economies," Working Papers 1994-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1031-1057, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:14:y:1996:i:2:p:26-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.