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Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?

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  • Kota Watanabe
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

Abstract

Japan has failed to escape from deflation despite an extraordinary monetary policy easing over the past 4 years. Monetary easing undoubtedly stimulated aggregate demand, leading to an improvement in the output gap. However, since the Phillips curve was almost flat, prices have hardly reacted at all. Against this background, the key question is why prices were so sticky. To examine this, we use sectoral price data for Japan and seven other countries including the USA, and use these data to compare the shape of the price change distribution across the eight countries. Our main finding is that Japan differs significantly from the other countries in that the mode of the distribution is very close to zero for Japan, while it is near 2% for other countries. This suggests that while in the USA and other countries the “default†is for firms to raise prices by about 2% each year, in Japan the default is that, as a result of prolonged deflation, firms keep their prices unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 23-41, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:13:y:2018:i:1:p:23-41
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," CARF F-Series CARF-F-493, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Kozo Kiyota, 2023. "Spatially uneven pace of deindustrialisation within a country," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2187-2230, July.
    3. Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Takahashi, Shuhei, 2021. "The uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium under state-dependent pricing: The case of deflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Shuhei Takahashi, 2018. "Does State-Dependent Wage Setting Generate Multiple Equilibria?," KIER Working Papers 991, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Kosuke Aoki & Yoshihiko Hogen & Kosuke Takatomi, 2023. "Price Markups and Wage Setting Behavior of Japanese Firms," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    7. Keiichi Goshima & Hiroshi Ishijima & Mototsugu Shintani & Hiroki Yamamoto, 2019. "Forecasting Japanese inflation with a news-based leading indicator of economic activities," CARF F-Series CARF-F-458, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Morita, Hiroshi, 2020. "Fiscal multipliers in the most aged country: Empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-100, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Ippei Fujiwara, 2018. "Comment on “Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?â€," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 42-43, January.
    10. Kazuo Ueda, 2018. "Comment on “Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?â€," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 44-45, January.
    11. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Estrategia de política monetaria e inflación en Japón," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    12. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 028, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    13. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    14. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2018. "Did Abenomics Succeed?: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, January.

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