IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v55y2024i1p41-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of food demand during political instability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Author

Listed:
  • Barchynai Kimsanova
  • Golib Sanaev
  • Thomas Herzfeld

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of two revolutions—the Tulip Revolution in 2005 and the Melon Revolution in 2010—on household food demand in Kyrgyzstan. Different categories within food products witnessed distinct adjustments in consumer demand. Employing a complete demand system and seemingly unrelated regressions with nationally representative panel data, we find that household food demand fluctuates based on pre‐conflict expectations. Despite declining total food expenditure during the first revolution and increasing in the second, the expenditure shares for staples and luxuries display heterogeneous trajectories. Food preferences shifted toward luxuries during the first revolution and staples during the second. Our findings underscore the necessity of a disaggregated perspective in understanding conflict‐induced shocks on food demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Barchynai Kimsanova & Golib Sanaev & Thomas Herzfeld, 2024. "Dynamics of food demand during political instability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 41-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:55:y:2024:i:1:p:41-53
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12810
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.12810?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pieter Serneels & Marijke Verpoorten, 2015. "The Impact of Armed Conflict on Economic Performance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(4), pages 555-592, June.
    2. Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Okonkwo Osili, 2012. "War and Stature: Growing Up during the Nigerian Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 273-277, May.
    3. Brück, Tilman & d’Errico, Marco & Pietrelli, Rebecca, 2019. "The effects of violent conflict on household resilience and food security: Evidence from the 2014 Gaza conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 203-223.
    4. Philip Verwimp & Juan Carlos Muñoz-Mora, 2018. "Returning Home after Civil War: Food Security and Nutrition among Burundian Households," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1019-1040, June.
    5. Korir, Lilian & Rizov, Marian & Ruto, Eric, 2020. "Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 99-108.
    6. Ogundari, Kolawole & Abdulai, Awudu, 2013. "Examining the heterogeneity in calorie–income elasticities: A meta-analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-128.
    7. Attanasio, Orazio & Di Maro, Vincenzo & Lechene, Valérie & Phillips, David, 2013. "Welfare consequences of food prices increases: Evidence from rural Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 136-151.
    8. Ore Koren, 2018. "Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa: Response to Marshall Burke’s Comments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1010-1011.
    9. Minoiu, Camelia & Shemyakina, Olga N., 2014. "Armed conflict, household victimization, and child health in Côte d'Ivoire," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 237-255.
    10. Ore Koren, 2018. "Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 981-1006.
    11. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    12. Deaton, Angus, 1988. "Quality, Quantity, and Spatial Variation of Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 418-430, June.
    13. BARTEN, Anton P., 1969. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a complete system of demand equations," LIDAM Reprints CORE 34, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    15. Steiner, Susan & Esenaliev, Damir, 2011. "Are Uzbeks Better Off? Economic Welfare and Ethnicity in Kyrgyzstan," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 75, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    16. Kumar, Neha & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2013. "Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 11-22.
    17. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-383, June.
    18. Brian P. Poi, 2012. "Easy demand-system estimation with quaids," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(3), pages 433-446, September.
    19. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    20. Dabalen, Andrew L. & Paul, Saumik, 2014. "Effect of Conflict on Dietary Diversity: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 143-158.
    21. Marc Rockmore, 2020. "Conflict-Risk and Agricultural Portfolios: Evidence from Northern Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 1856-1876, October.
    22. Barrett, C. B. & Reardon, T. & Webb, P., 2001. "Nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural Africa: concepts, dynamics, and policy implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 315-331, August.
    23. Pushan Dutt & V. Padmanabhan, 2011. "Crisis and Consumption Smoothing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 491-512, 05-06.
    24. Ihle, Rico & Rubin, Ofir D., 2013. "Consequences of unintended food policies: Food price dynamics subject to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 96-105.
    25. Kroeger, Antje & Anderson, Kathryn H., 2014. "Remittances and the human capital of children: New evidence from Kyrgyzstan during revolution and financial crisis, 2005–2009," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 770-785.
    26. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    27. Hoa K. Hoang, 2018. "Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short†term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(1), pages 83-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimsanova, Barchynai & Sanaev, Golib & Herzfeld, Thomas, 2022. "Dynamics of food consumption during political instability: evidence from Kyrgyzstan," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321213, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Korir, Lilian & Rizov, Marian & Ruto, Eric, 2020. "Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 99-108.
    3. Adong, Annet & Kornher, Lukas & Kiptoo Kirui, Oliver & von Braun, Joachim, 2021. "Conflict exposure and food consumption pathways during and after conflict: Evidence from Northern Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Bairagi, Subir & Mohanty, Samarendu & Baruah, Sampriti & Trinh Thi, Huong, 2020. "Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    5. Subir Bairagi & Samarendu Mohanty & Sampriti Baruah & Huong Trinh Thi, 2020. "Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 750-775, July.
    6. Kaila, Heidi & Azad, Abul, 2023. "The effects of crime and violence on food insecurity and consumption in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Andrej Cupák & Peter Tóth, 2017. "Measuring the Efficiency of VAT reforms: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 6/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    8. Peter Tóth & Andrej Cupák & Marian Rizov, 2021. "Measuring the efficiency of VAT reforms: a demand system simulation approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 1218-1243.
    9. Femenia, Fabienne, 2019. "A Meta-Analysis of the Price and Income Elasticities of Food Demand," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(2), June.
    10. Odozi, John Chiwuzulum & Oyelere, Ruth Uwaifo, 2019. "Conflict Exposure and Economic Welfare in Nigeria," GLO Discussion Paper Series 334, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Gilles Quentin Kane & Gwladys Laure Mabah Tene & Jean-Joël Ambagna & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & Fondo Sikod, 2015. "The impact of food price volatility on consumer welfare in Cameroon," Working Papers hal-02801351, HAL.
    12. Mauro Vigani & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & Alfredo Mainar Causape, 2019. "Estimation of food demand parameters in Kenya. A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach," JRC Research Reports JRC115472, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Chukwuemeka Chinonso Emenekwe & Mark Umunna Amadi & Jane Onuabuchi Munonye & Chukwudi Loveday Njoku & Chibuzo Uzoma Izuogua, 2020. "Demand analysis of rice in Nigeria: application of quadratic almost ideal demand system model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(1), pages 364-378, June.
    14. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    15. Gilles Quentin Kane & Gwladys Laure Mabah Tene & Jean Joël Ambagna & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & Fondo Sikod, 2015. "The impact of food price volatility on consumer welfare in Cameroon," WIDER Working Paper Series 013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    17. Asfaw, Solomon & Cattaneo, Andrea & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2017. "Improving the efficiency targeting of Malawi's farm input subsidy programme: Big pain, small gain?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 104-118.
    18. Braha, Kushtrim & Cupak, Andrej & Qineti, Artan & Pokrivcak, Jan, 2018. "Food Demand System in Transition Economies: Evidence from Kosovo," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 272050, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Vigani,Mauro & Dudu,Hasan, 2021. "Demand Analysis of Multiple Goods and Services in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9803, The World Bank.
    20. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2008. "Consumer preferences and demand systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 210-224, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:55:y:2024:i:1:p:41-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.