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Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?

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  • Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi

Abstract

This study examined the causal relationships among GDP, export, imports and remittances. The study, among others, investigated the validity of export‐led and remittances‐led growth hypotheses. Specifically, the study investigated the causal relationship between remittances and GDP, remittances and export and remittances and imports. Employing a VECM Granger Causality for data spanning between 1980 and 2012, imports and remittances significantly Granger‐caused GDP in the short run. Also, there were reverse causalities running from GDP to export and imports. This implies that export‐led growth hypothesis holds in Nigeria. Furthermore, there was a unidirectional causation running from remittances to GDP, implying that remittances matter for economic growth. But since the effect was more from the demand side, it could lead to inflationary pressure. The policy recommendation is that the authorities should intensify efforts on the export base of the economy. The monetary authorities should implement necessary policy to cool the pressure arising from conspicuous spending of remittances.

Suggested Citation

  • Ebenezer Adesoji Olubiyi, 2014. "Trade, Remittances and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Any Causal Relationship?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 274-285, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:26:y:2014:i:2:p:274-285
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12081
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    8. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/063, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. Njangang, Henri, 2018. "Does the size of the informal economy impede the impact of remittances on economic growth? Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," MPRA Paper 90187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. T. V. Ojapinwa & N. I. Nwokoma, 2018. "Workers’ Remittances and the Dutch‐Disease Argument: Investigating the Relationship in Sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 316-324, September.
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    14. Ebele Stella Nwokoye & Clement Izuchukwu Igbanugo & Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi, 2020. "International migrant remittances and labour force participation in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 125-137, June.
    15. Kristina Matuzeviciute & Mindaugas Butkus, 2016. "Remittances, Development Level, and Long-Run Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-20, December.
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    17. Njangang, Henri & Nembot Ndeffo, Luc & Noubissi Domguia, Edmond & Fosto Koyeu, Prevost, 2018. "The long-run and short-run effects of foreign direct investment, foreign aid and remittances on economic growth in African countries," MPRA Paper 89747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/063, African Governance and Development Institute..
    19. Ali, Amjad & Khokhar, Bilal & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad, 2023. "Financial Dimensions of Inflationary Pressure in Developing Countries: An In-depth Analysis of Policy Mix," MPRA Paper 119364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle & Tolulope Oyakhilome Williams & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Serifat Olukorede Onayemi, 2020. "The Mediating Role Of Institutions In The Remittance–Growth Relationship: Evidence From Nigeria," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 7-30, October –.
    21. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek & Mabrouki, Mohamed, 2022. "The Impact of Digitalization and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Richest Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 113816, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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