IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v59y2019is1p657-684.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling momentum winner/loser asymmetry: the sources of winner and loser returns in the ASX200 and S&P500

Author

Listed:
  • Nick Inglis
  • Bruce Vanstone
  • Tobias Hahn

Abstract

There is an established body of work showing that the sources of momentum returns change over time. This paper finds that there is also winner/loser asymmetry – that the sources of the winner and loser components of momentum returns differ from each other at the same point in time. Together, these results raise concerns about the prospect of finding a single cause for momentum profits, as most efforts to date have tried to do. Rather, they indicate that investigation should proceed using time‐varying, nonparametric and ensemble techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Inglis & Bruce Vanstone & Tobias Hahn, 2019. "Modelling momentum winner/loser asymmetry: the sources of winner and loser returns in the ASX200 and S&P500," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(S1), pages 657-684, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:59:y:2019:i:s1:p:657-684
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12452
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12452
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12452?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    2. Howard Chan & Paul Docherty & David Gallagher, 2016. "Momentum in Australian style portfolios: risk or inefficiency?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 333-361, June.
    3. Chris Chatfield, 1995. "Model Uncertainty, Data Mining and Statistical Inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(3), pages 419-444, May.
    4. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    5. Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1981. "Note on the behavior of residual security returns for winner and loser portfolios," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-241, December.
    6. Tom Smith & Kathleen Walsh, 2013. "Why the CAPM is Half-Right and Everything Else is Wrong," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 73-78, January.
    7. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    8. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    9. Mike Dempsey, 2013. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ): The History of a Failed Revolutionary Idea in Finance?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 7-23, January.
    10. Galariotis, Emilios C., 2010. "What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 369-389, September.
    11. Farinelli, Simone & Tibiletti, Luisa, 2008. "Sharpe thinking in asset ranking with one-sided measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1542-1547, March.
    12. Pavel Bandarchuk & Jens Hilscher, 2013. "Sources of Momentum Profits: Evidence on the Irrelevance of Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 809-845.
    13. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    14. Grundy, Bruce D & Martin, J Spencer, 2001. "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 29-78.
    15. Byun, Suk Joon & Lim, Sonya S. & Yun, Sang Hyun, 2016. "Continuing Overreaction and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(6), pages 2015-2046, December.
    16. Shaun A. Bond, 2006. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion, and Forecasting," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1809-1830, July.
    17. Hon, Mark T. & Tonks, Ian, 2003. "Momentum in the UK stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 43-70, February.
    18. Ben Marshall & Rachael Cahan, 2005. "Is the 52-week high momentum strategy profitable outside the US?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(18), pages 1259-1267.
    19. Demir, Isabelle & Muthuswamy, Jay & Walter, Terry, 2004. "Momentum returns in Australian equities: The influences of size, risk, liquidity and return computation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 143-158, April.
    20. Du, Ding & Watkins, Boyce, 2007. "When competing momentum hypotheses really do not compete: How the sources of momentum profits change through time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 130-143.
    21. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    22. Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2003. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 141-155, September.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    24. Paul Y Dou & David R Gallagher & David H Schneider, 2013. "Dissecting anomalies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 353-373, August.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    27. Antoniou, Antonios & Lam, Herbert Y.T. & Paudyal, Krishna, 2007. "Profitability of momentum strategies in international markets: The role of business cycle variables and behavioural biases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 955-972, March.
    28. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Gergana Jostova & Alexander Philipov, 2007. "Momentum and Credit Rating," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2503-2520, October.
    29. A. S. Hurn & V.Pavlov, 2008. "Momentum in Australian Stock Returns: An Update," NCER Working Paper Series 23, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 26 Feb 2008.
    30. Zhi Da & Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka, 2014. "Frog in the Pan: Continuous Information and Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 2171-2218.
    31. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    32. Hou, Kewei & Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "R2 and Price Inefficiency," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    33. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    34. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    35. Bettman, Jenni L. & Maher, Thomas R.B. & Sault, Stephen J., 2009. "Momentum profits in the Australian equity market: A matched firm approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 565-579, November.
    36. Paul Schneider & Clive Gaunt, 2012. "Price and earnings momentum in Australian stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(2), pages 495-517, June.
    37. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    38. Shaun Bond & Stephen Satchell, 2006. "Asymmetry and downside risk in foreign exchange markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-332.
    39. Post, G.T. & van Vliet, P. & Lansdorp, S.D., 2009. "Sorting out Downside Beta," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-006-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    40. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    41. Bruce J. Vanstone & Tom Smith & Tobias Hahn, 2017. "Australian momentum: performance, capacity and the GFC effect," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 261-287, March.
    42. Gil Aharoni & Tuan Q. Ho & Qi Zeng, 2012. "Testing the growth option theory: the profitability of enhanced momentum strategies in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(2), pages 267-290, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    2. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    3. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    4. Emilios C. C Galariotis, 2010. "What should investors know about the stability of momentum investing and its riskiness? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Post-Print hal-00917587, HAL.
    5. Galariotis, Emilios C., 2010. "What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 369-389, September.
    6. Hurst, Gareth & Docherty, Paul, 2015. "Trend salience, investor behaviours and momentum profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 471-484.
    7. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    8. Israel, Ronen & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2013. "The role of shorting, firm size, and time on market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 275-301.
    9. Minh Phuong Doan & Vitali Alexeev & Robert Brooks, 2016. "Concurrent momentum and contrarian strategies in the Australian stock market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 77-106, February.
    10. Bruce J. Vanstone & Tom Smith & Tobias Hahn, 2017. "Australian momentum: performance, capacity and the GFC effect," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 261-287, March.
    11. Weber, Martin & Jacobs, Heiko & Regele, Tobias, 2015. "Expected Skewness and Momentum," CEPR Discussion Papers 10601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Chai, Daniel & Chiah, Mardy & Zhong, Angel & Li, Bob, 2022. "Another look at sources of momentum profits," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 310-323.
    13. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Pham, Nga, 2021. "False discoveries in the anomaly research: New insights from the Stock Exchange of Melbourne (1927–1987)," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Zhong, Angel & Limkriangkrai, Manapon & Gray, Philip, 2014. "Anomalies, risk adjustment and seasonality: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-218.
    15. Tobias Wiest, 2023. "Momentum: what do we know 30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(1), pages 95-114, March.
    16. Michael Dempsey, 2015. "Stock Markets, Investments and Corporate Behavior:A Conceptual Framework of Understanding," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number p1007, January.
    17. Jenni L. Bettman & Stephen J. Sault & Anna H. von Reibnitz, 2010. "The impact of liquidity and transaction costs on the 52-week high momentum strategy in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(3), pages 227-244, December.
    18. Thanh D Huynh & Daniel R Smith, 2017. "Delisted stocks and momentum: Evidence from a new Australian dataset," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 140-160, February.
    19. Krauss, Christopher & Beerstecher, Daniel & Krüger, Tom, 2015. "Feasible earnings momentum in the U.S. stock market: An investor's perspective," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 12/2015, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    20. Bradrania, Reza & Wu, Winston, 2023. "Foreign institutions, local investors and momentum trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 40-64.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:59:y:2019:i:s1:p:657-684. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.