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Total credit as an early warning indicator for systemic banking crises

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  • Mathias Drehmann

Abstract

Credit-to-GDP gaps are valuable early warning indicators for systemic banking crises. As such, they are useful for identifying vulnerabilities and can help guide the deployment of macroprudential tools such as the build-up of countercyclical capital buffers. In line with Basel III recommendations, credit-to-GDP gaps can be further improved by taking account of all sources of credit to the private non-financial sector, rather than just bank credit. Drawing on a new BIS database, this special feature finds that total credit developments predict the risk of systemic crises better than indicators based solely on bank credit.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): (June)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1306f

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  1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-65, January.
  3. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring countercyclical capital buffers: the role of credit aggregates," BIS Working Papers 355, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Christian Dembiermont & Mathias Drehmann & Siriporn Muksakunratana, 2013. "How much does the private sector really borrow - a new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 261-298, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  2. Dudek, Jérémy, 2013. "Illiquidité, contagion et risque systémique," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/13236 edited by Le Fol, Gaëlle.

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