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The importance of the link between climate change and population for economic development
[L’importance du lien entre changement climatique et population pour le développement économique]

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  • Lesterquy Pauline

Abstract

This articles proposes a review of the literature on the effects of climate change on population and economic growth, especially in developing countries. Climate change affects mortality and living conditions via the direct impacts of extreme temperatures and via indirect impacts mediated by the environment and social systems. Demographic factors contribute to growth through various channels, including capital accumulation over individuals’ life cycle, investment in education, an increase in income per capita in countries where the fertility transition has occurred, and their impact on labour productivity. However, the macroeconomic importance of these factors remains subject to debate. Future research should therefore improve the quantification and integration of population effects in models assessing the macroeconomic impact of climate change, and take better account of climate policies. Cet article propose une revue de la littérature portant sur les effets du changement climatique sur la population et la croissance économique, en particulier dans les pays en développement. Le changement climatique influence la mortalité et les conditions de vie via les effets directs des températures extrêmes et des effets indirects intermédiés par l’environnement ainsi que par les systèmes sociaux. La contribution des facteurs démographiques à la croissance emprunte différents canaux dont l’accumulation de capital au long du cycle de vie, l’investissement dans l’éducation, l’élévation du revenu par tête des pays dans lesquels la transition de la fécondité est réalisée et l’effet sur la productivité du travail. Toutefois, l’importance macroéconomique de ces facteurs reste en débat. La recherche future devrait par conséquent améliorer la quantification et l’intégration des effets sur les populations dans les modèles d’évaluation de l’impact macroéconomique du changement climatique, et mieux intégrer les politiques climatiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Lesterquy Pauline, 2021. "The importance of the link between climate change and population for economic development [L’importance du lien entre changement climatique et population pour le développement économique]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 236.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:bullbf:2021:236:05
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