IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bbz/fcpbbr/v11y2014i3p53-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Policy, Supply Shocks and Economic Expansion in Brazil from 2003 to 2007

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Ellery Jr.

    (Universidade de Brasília – UnB)

  • Victor Gomes

    (Universidade de Brasília - UnB)

Abstract

This article has two objectives. The first is to show the impact of distortionary taxes during a period of the economic cycle in Brazil. The second is to show that an explanation for output to grow slower than productivity is the increase in taxes on productive factors: capital and labor. To attain these two objectives, we carried out a study comparing the Brazilian economy with simulated data from the neoclassical model of economic growth with and without distortionary taxes. The empirical results show that the model without taxes predicts stronger growth than observed between 2003 and 2007. This point was addressed using the neoclassical growth model with distortionary taxes. However, this model produces a lower output path than observed. Besides this, both models fail to appropriately account for the behavior of the labor market

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Supply Shocks and Economic Expansion in Brazil from 2003 to 2007," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 53-75, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbz:fcpbbr:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:53-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bbronline.com.br/index.php/bbr/article/download/257/389
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Marginal income tax rates and economic growth in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 409-417, April.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    3. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    4. S.K. Bhutani, 2009. "China and India," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 65(4), pages 383-391, October.
    5. Juan C. Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Productivity, taxes, and hours worked in Spain: 1970–2015," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 201-223, August.
    6. Cooley, Thomas F & Ohanian, Lee E, 1997. "Postwar British Economic Growth and the Legacy of Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 439-472, June.
    7. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    8. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    9. Hansen, Gary D & Prescott, Edward C, 1993. "Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 280-286, May.
    10. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture," Working Papers 618, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Álvaro José Riascos & James A. Schmitz, 2006. "Latin America in the rearview mirror," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 30(Sep).
    12. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    13. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    14. Barbosa Filho, Fernando de Holanda & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu & Veloso, Fernando A., 2010. "Evolução da Produtividade Total dos Fatores na Economia Brasileira com Ênfase no Capital Humano – 1992-2007," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    15. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
    16. Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Prosperity and Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    18. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    19. Samuel de Abreu Pessoa & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho & Fernando A. Veloso, 2008. "Evolução da Produtividade Total dos Fatores na Economia Brasileira com Ênfase no Capital Humano -1992-2006," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211433140, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    21. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    22. Jorge Saba Arbache, 2004. "Do Structural Reforms always Succeed?: Lessons from Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-58, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Gomes, Victor & Bugarin, Mirta N. S. & Ellery-Jr, Roberto, 2005. "Long-run Implications of the Brazilian Capital Stock and Income Estimates," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(1), May.
    24. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    25. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    26. Joines, Douglas H, 1981. "Estimates of Effective Marginal Tax Rates on Factor Incomes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 191-226, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    2. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.
    3. Gomes, Victor & Teixeira, Arilton & Bugarin, Mirta Sataka & Ellery Jr, Roberto, 2010. "From a Miracle to a Disaster: the Brazilian Economy in the Last 3 Decades," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    4. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    5. Stylianos G. Gogos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Rent Seeking Activities and Aggregate Economic Performance - The Case of Greece," Working Papers 201712, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Ellen R. M cG rattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 2010. "Does Neoclassical Theory Account For The Effects Of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War Ii," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 509-532, May.
    7. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 20022014," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    9. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    11. Jones, John Bailey, 2002. "Has fiscal policy helped stabilize the postwar U.S. economy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 709-746, May.
    12. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2013. "Essays on Real Business Cycle Modeling and the Public Sector," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 130522, July.
    13. Dalton, John T., 2015. "The Evolution Of Taxes And Hours Worked In Austria, 1970–2005," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1800-1815, December.
    14. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Tax Regimes: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 97, Bank of Greece.
    15. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    16. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1515-1550.
    17. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 197-219.
    18. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
    19. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    20. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbz:fcpbbr:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:53-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Lasso (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fucapbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.