IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2018i5p147-153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Modelling Approach for Forecasting Net Exports of Electricity from Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitar Zlatinov

Abstract

The report presents a modelling approach for forecasting Bulgarian net exports of electricity based on an empirical analysis of the factors affecting trade with this specific commodity. A brief overview of the models and approaches for forecasting the production and export of electricity is made and their adequacy is assessed regarding the situation of the electricity market in Bulgaria and the region. On this basis, a modelling approach is foreseen to predict the net exports of electricity by 2035, taking into account the current situation and prospects for the development of the electricity sector in Bulgaria and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Zlatinov, 2018. "A Modelling Approach for Forecasting Net Exports of Electricity from Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 147-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2018:i:5:p:147-153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=733002
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig S. Hakkio & Jun Nie, 2014. "Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 29-51.
    2. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özkaymak, Mehmet, 2005. "Turkey's net energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 209-221, June.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
    4. Borislava Galabova & Nedialko Nestorov, 2018. "State and Trends of Bulgaria’s Foreign Trade with Ores and Concentrates," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 109-140.
    5. Chandran, V.G.R. & Sharma, Susan & Madhavan, Karunagaran, 2010. "Electricity consumption-growth nexus: The case of Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 606-612, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    2. Omri, Anis, 2014. "An international literature survey on energy-economic growth nexus: Evidence from country-specific studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 951-959.
    3. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Can African countries efficiently build their economies on renewable energy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 161-173.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "Revisiting the Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Capital and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 97-120, September.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    7. Zhang, Chi & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2017. "On electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 353-368.
    8. Al-Mulali, Usama & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Are energy conservation policies effective without harming economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 639-650.
    9. Shahateet, Mohammed Issa & Al-Majali, Khalid Ali & Al-Hahabashneh, Fedel, 2014. "Causality and Cointegration between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption: Econometric Evidence from Jordan," MPRA Paper 59067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2014.
    10. Michael McAleer & Ha Minh Nguyen & Ngoc Hoang Bui & Duc Hong Vo, 2019. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 8, pages 350-361.
    11. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    12. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    13. Riad Sultan, 2012. "An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 225-237.
    14. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Ankrah, Isaac, 2019. "On Nigeria's renewable energy program: Examining the effectiveness, substitution potential, and the impact on national output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1181-1193.
    16. Chor Foon Tang and Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    17. Bastola, Umesh & Sapkota, Pratikshya, 2015. "Relationships among energy consumption, pollution emission, and economic growth in Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 254-262.
    18. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3640-3648.
    19. Gregori, Tullio & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2020. "Do urbanization, income, and trade affect electricity consumption across Chinese provinces?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Rashid Sbia & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Economic growth, financial development, urbanisation and electricity consumption nexus in UAE," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 527-549, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2018:i:5:p:147-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.