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Turkey's net energy consumption

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  • Sözen, Adnan
  • Arcaklioglu, Erol
  • Özkaymak, Mehmet
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    Abstract

    The main goal of this study is to develop the equations for forecasting net energy consumption (NEC) using an artificial neural-network (ANN) technique in order to determine the future level of energy consumption in Turkey. In this study, two different models were used in order to train the neural network. In one of them, population, gross generation, installed capacity and years are used in the input layer of the network (Model 1). Other energy sources are used in input layer of network (Model 2). The net energy consumption is in the output layer for two models. Data from 1975 to 2003 are used for the training. Three years (1981, 1994 and 2003) are used only as test data to confirm this method. The statistical coefficients of multiple determinations (R2-value) for training data are equal to 0.99944 and 0.99913 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. Similarly, R2 values for testing data are equal to 0.997386 and 0.999558 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. According to the results, the net energy consumption using the ANN technique has been predicted with acceptable accuracy. Apart from reducing the whole time required, with the ANN approach, it is possible to find solutions that make energy applications more viable and thus more attractive to potential users. It is also expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable energy policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

    Volume (Year): 81 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 209-221

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:81:y:2005:i:2:p:209-221

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    Related research

    Keywords: Energy sources Consumption Gross generation Estimation Artificial neural-network Turkey;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Mohandes, M. & Rehman, S. & Halawani, T.O., 1998. "Estimation of global solar radiation using artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 179-184.
    2. Dincer, Ibrahim & Dost, Sadik, 1996. "Energy intensities for Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 283-298.
    3. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2004. "Use of artificial neural networks for mapping of solar potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 273-286, March.
    4. Kalogirou, Soteris A., 2000. "Applications of artificial neural-networks for energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(1-2), pages 17-35, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    2. Kurt, Hüseyin & Kayfeci, Muhammet, 2009. "Prediction of thermal conductivity of ethylene glycol-water solutions by using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2244-2248, October.
    3. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    4. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2005. "Energy market reforms in Turkey: An economic analysis," MPRA Paper 26929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. ToksarI, M. Duran, 2009. "Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1181-1187, March.
    6. Yeo, In-Ae & Yee, Jurng-Jae, 2014. "A proposal for a site location planning model of environmentally friendly urban energy supply plants using an environment and energy geographical information system (E-GIS) database (DB) and an artifi," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 99-117.
    7. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
    8. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.

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