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Exploring Energy Technology Substitution for Reducing Atmospheric Carbon Emissions

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  • Karl E. Knapp

Abstract

This paper presents a simple method for incorporating the time required for new technology to penetrate the market and subsequently substitute for an old one when evaluating the ability of new energy technology to impact global climate change. The methodology is applied to the two largest sources of energyrelated carbon dioxide: electricity generation and motor vehicles. Carbon-free road transportation is hypothesized to substitute for petroleum-fueled vehicles and carbon-free electric power generation for fossil-fueled electricity based on empirical analogs for substitution dynamics parameters, beginning in the year 2000. The examples imply that near-term significant reductions to 1990 carbon emissions levels via technology substitution are unlikely. The time scale relevant for realizing reductions in carbon emissions is several times the expected lifetime of the products that new technology is intended to replace.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl E. Knapp, 1999. "Exploring Energy Technology Substitution for Reducing Atmospheric Carbon Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 121-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1999v20-02-a05
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2007. "Measuring the value of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5287-5297, November.
    2. Hauch, Jens, 2003. "Electricity trade and CO2 emission reductions in the Nordic countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 509-526, September.
    3. Gerlagh , Reyer & Kverndokk , Snorre & Rosendahl , Knut Einar, 2007. "Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy: Interaction Between Environmental Taxes and Innovation Externalities," Memorandum 26/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Gregory F. Nemet and Adam R. Brandt, 2012. "Willingness to Pay for a Climate Backstop: Liquid Fuel Producers and Direct CO2 Air Capture," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    5. Nemet, Gregory F., 2010. "Robust incentives and the design of a climate change governance regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7216-7225, November.
    6. Reyer Gerlagh & Bob van der Zwaan & Marjan Hofkes & Ger Klaassen, 2004. "Impacts of CO 2 -Taxes in an Economy with Niche Markets and Learning-by-Doing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(3), pages 367-394, July.
    7. Gregory F. Nemet & Peter Braden & Ed Cubero & Bickey Rimal, 2014. "Four decades of multiyear targets in energy policy: aspirations or credible commitments?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(5), pages 522-533, September.
    8. Ronald Sutherland, 2000. "Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 123-142, June.
    9. Gabriela Prelipcean & Mircea Boscoianu, 2012. "Aspects Regarding the Impact of the "Rabla" Program and the "Casa Verde" Program on the Ecological Consumption in Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 25-37, February.
    10. Shinuo Deng & George R. Tynan, 2011. "Implications of Energy Return on Energy Invested on Future Total Energy Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(12), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Kazim, Ayoub, 2003. "Introduction of PEM fuel-cell vehicles in the transportation sector of the United Arab Emirates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 125-133, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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