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Asymmetric Attention

Author

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  • Alexandre N. Kohlhas
  • Ansgar Walther

Abstract

We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre N. Kohlhas & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Asymmetric Attention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2879-2925, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:9:p:2879-2925
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. repec:fip:fedmqr:y:2012:i:october:n:v.35no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    3. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Sanjay R. Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2021. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," Working Papers 339, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    5. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    7. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
    8. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
    9. Cole, Stephen J. & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Sims, Eric, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers and Research 2023-04, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    14. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    15. Abay, Kibrom A. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Kilic, Talip & Moylan, Heather & Ilukor, John & Vundru, Wilbert Drazi, 2023. "Nonclassical measurement error and farmers’ response to information treatment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Hajdini, Ina & Kurmann, Andre, 2022. "Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2022-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    17. Meggiorini, Greta, 2023. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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