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Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2021. "Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
  2. David R. Mandel & Christopher W. Karvetski & Mandeep K. Dhami, 2018. "Boosting intelligence analysts’ judgment accuracy: What works, what fails?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(6), pages 607-621, November.
  3. Pavel Atanasov & Phillip Rescober & Eric Stone & Samuel A. Swift & Emile Servan-Schreiber & Philip Tetlock & Lyle Ungar & Barbara Mellers, 2017. "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 691-706, March.
  4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:6:p:607-621 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Satopää, Ville A., 2021. "Improving the wisdom of crowds with analysis of variance of predictions of related outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1728-1747.
  6. Jared A. Beekman & Ronald F. A. Woodaman & Dennis M. Buede, 2020. "A Review of Probabilistic Opinion Pooling Algorithms with Application to Insider Threat Detection," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(1), pages 39-55, March.
  7. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
  8. Huck, Nicolas, 2019. "Large data sets and machine learning: Applications to statistical arbitrage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 330-342.
  9. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  10. Tao Lin & Yiling Chen, 2022. "Sample Complexity of Forecast Aggregation," Papers 2207.13126, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  11. Asa B. Palley & Jack B. Soll, 2019. "Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information Is Shared," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2291-2309, May.
  12. Ying Han & David Budescu, 2019. "A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(4), pages 395-411, July.
  13. Marcellin Martinie & Tom Wilkening & Piers D L Howe, 2020. "Using meta-predictions to identify experts in the crowd when past performance is unknown," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, April.
  14. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:5:p:863-880 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Satopää, Ville A. & Salikhov, Marat & Tetlock, Philip E. & Mellers, Barbara, 2023. "Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 470-485.
  16. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
  17. Ying Han & David V. Budescu, 2022. "Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 17(1), pages 91-123, January.
  18. Andrew Gelman & Jessica Hullman & Christopher Wlezien & George Elliott Morris, 2020. "Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 863-880, September.
  19. Karvetski, Christopher W. & Meinel, Carolyn & Maxwell, Daniel T. & Lu, Yunzi & Mellers, Barbara A. & Tetlock, Philip E., 2022. "What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 688-704.
  20. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:395-411 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:1:p:91-123 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Ville A. Satopää & Robin Pemantle & Lyle H. Ungar, 2016. "Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(516), pages 1623-1633, October.
  23. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:2:p:135-147 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Jason Dana & Pavel Atanasov & Philip Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2019. "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(2), pages 135-147, March.
  25. Robert Mislavsky & Celia Gaertig, 2022. "Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 541-563, January.
  26. Joshua D. Kertzer, 2017. "Microfoundations in international relations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 81-97, January.
  27. Michael D. Lee & Irina Danileiko, 2014. "Using cognitive models to combine probability estimates," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(3), pages 259-273, May.
  28. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:3:p:259-273 is not listed on IDEAS
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