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The persistence and asymmetry of time-varying correlations

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  • Baur, Dirk

Abstract

Existing multivariate GARCH models either impose strong restrictions on the parameters or do not guarantee a well-defined (positive definite) covariance matrix. We focus on the multivariate GARCH model of Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BE=) and show that the covariance and correlation is not adequately specified. This implies that any analysis of the persistence and the asymmetry of the correlation is difficult and potentially biased. We illustrate this by the use of Monte-Carlo simulations for different correlation processes and propose a new Bivariate Dynamic Correlation (BDC) model that parameterizes the conditional correlation directly and eliminates the shortcomings of the BEKK model. Empirical results for correlations of the German stock market index with three international stock market indices reveal that correlations exhibit different degrees of persistence and different asymmetric reactions than variances. In addition, we find that correlations do not necessarily increase with variantes implying a justification for international portfolio diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Baur, Dirk, 2002. "The persistence and asymmetry of time-varying correlations," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 232, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuedps:232
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    Cited by:

    1. Hager, Svenja & Schöbel, Rainer, 2006. "Deriving the dependence structure of portfolio credit derivatives using evolutionary algorithms," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 300, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    2. Rostek, Stefan & Schöbel, Rainer, 2006. "Risk preference based option pricing in a fractional Brownian market," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 299, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    3. Stadler, Manfred, 2003. "Innovation and growth: The role of labor-force qualification," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 255, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    4. Pitterle, Ingo & Steffen, Dirk, 2004. "Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes : The Role of the Scale Variable of Money Demand," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 284, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    5. Koepke, Nikola & Baten, Joerg, 2005. "The biological standard of living in Europe during the last two millennia," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 61-95, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate GARCH; BEKK; Covariance Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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