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IW Financial Expert Survey: Second Quarter 2019

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  • Demary, Markus

Abstract

Pessimism determines the experts' predictions for the second and third quarter of 2019 which can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. All in all, more downward revisions than upward revisions can be found in the forecasts indicating that the experts have interpreted the incoming information between end of December 2018 and end of March 2019 as bad news. Part or the forecast revision for the interest rates is due to their subdued inflation and growth outlook. All experts have revised their growth outlooks for Germany and the Euro Area downwards. So were Inflation forecasts for Germany revised downwards by 12 experts and inflation outlooks for the Euro Area were revised downwards by 8 experts. The other part of the interest rate forecast revisions were due to revisions about the future part of monetary policy interest rates, which also reflect a subdued inflation and growth outlook. While no experts expect the ECB to change its monetary policy, 12 experts have revised their forecasts for the federal funds rate downwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Demary, Markus, 2019. "IW Financial Expert Survey: Second Quarter 2019," IW-Reports 15/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:152019
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/195578/1/IW-Report_2019-15.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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