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A comparative analysis of forced migration: Cold War versus post-Cold War eras

Author

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  • Buzurukov, Bilol
  • Lee, Byeong Wan

Abstract

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of forced international migration between two historical periods: 1969-1990 representing the Cold War era, and 1991-2012, the post-Cold War era. The determinants of refugee migration over the two periods are assessed and compared using a panel data analysis for a sample of 125 countries. In order to control for unobserved country-specific effects and the joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables, the Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator is used. Overall, the results suggest that significant changes have taken place with both the set of explanatory variables and their individual impact on refugee migration over time. Also noteworthy is the significance of the two flight facilitators - the Internet and the telecommunication devices - included in the model to explain the refugee migration dynamics during the post-Cold War period.

Suggested Citation

  • Buzurukov, Bilol & Lee, Byeong Wan, 2016. "A comparative analysis of forced migration: Cold War versus post-Cold War eras," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201623
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forced Migration; War and Conflicts; Flight Facilitators; GMM Dynamic Panel Data Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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