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Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2004

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  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute

Abstract

Am 19. Oktober 2004 stellten die sechs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute in Berlin ihr Herbstgutachten der Presse vor. Sie kamen zu der Ansicht, dass der Aufschwung in der Weltwirtschaft zwar anhält, allerdings seit dem Frühjahr 2004 etwas an Fahrt verliert. Die Abschwächung erklärt sich zum Teil aus einer Straffung der bisher sehr expansiven Wirtschaftspolitik. Zwar blieben die monetären Rahmenbedingungen zumeist ausgesprochen günstig, aber in den USA liefen finanzpolitische Impulse aus, und in China wurden administrative Maßnahmen ergriffen, um die überschäumende Konjunktur zu zügeln. Die wirtschaftliche Aktivität wurde zusätzlich von dem starken Anstieg der Rohölpreise gedämpft, die bis in den Oktober immer neue Rekordhöhen erreichten. Der ölpreisbedingte Kaufkraftentzug bremste insbesondere den privaten Konsum. Die Unternehmensinvestitionen, die - unterstützt von der sehr expansiven Geldpolitik im vergangenen Jahr - mehr und mehr Dynamik entfaltet hatten, wurden hingegen weiter zügig ausgedehnt.

Suggested Citation

  • Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2004. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2004," HWWA Reports 248, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwware:26062
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    Cited by:

    1. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2004. "Leasing: Business climate yields clearly - regeneration of aggregate equipment investment is still down the road," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(22), pages 36-39, November.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Das deutsche Rätsel," Munich Reprints in Economics 950, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "Macroeconomic policies, wage developments, and Germany’s stagnation," Macroeconomics 0508015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eckhard Hein & Torsten Niechoj, 2005. "Guidelines for sustained growth in the EU? The concept and consequences of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines," Macroeconomics 0508016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2007. "Germany’s Post-2000 Stagnation in the European Context — a Lesson in Macroeconomic Mismanagement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis & Eckhard Hein & Edwin Heron (ed.), Aspects of Modern Monetary and Macroeconomic Policies, chapter 12, pages 223-247, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Josef Lachner, 2004. "Diverging trends in German wholesaling," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(11), pages 24-29, June.
    8. Hans-Dieter Karl, 2004. "Metal processing trades can hope for recovery," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(10), pages 18-26, May.
    9. Manuel Birnbrich, 2004. "Retailing: Hopes for an upswing disappointed – investment activity continues to shrink," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(14), pages 24-27, July.
    10. Manuel Birnbrich, 2004. "Großhandel: Trotz Umsatzwachstum weiterhin zurückhaltende Investitionsplanungen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 30-33, August.

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