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Monte-Carlo Simulation und Due Diligence: Ein methodischer Ansatz zur computergestützten Aggregierung von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen aus Expertenbefragungen


  • Klein, Martin


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  • Klein, Martin, 2010. "Monte-Carlo Simulation und Due Diligence: Ein methodischer Ansatz zur computergestützten Aggregierung von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen aus Expertenbefragungen," Working Papers in Accounting Valuation Auditing 2010-5, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Accounting and Auditing.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fauacc:20105

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 633-652.
    2. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2014. "Bank income smoothing, ownership concentration and the regulatory environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-270.
    3. Heid, Frank, 2007. "The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3885-3900, December.
    4. Domenico Curcio & Iftekhar Hasan, 2015. "Earnings and capital management and signaling: the use of loan-loss provisions by European banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 26-50, January.
    5. Mary E. Barth & Wayne R. Landsman & Mark H. Lang, 2008. "International Accounting Standards and Accounting Quality," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 467-498, June.
    6. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2014. "Financial accounting in the banking industry: A review of the empirical literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 339-383.
    7. Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Memmel, Christoph & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2012. "Are banks using hidden reserves to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2403-2415.
    8. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    9. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    10. Bushman, Robert M., 2014. "Thoughts on financial accounting and the banking industry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 384-395.
    11. Laux, Christian & Leuz, Christian, 2009. "The crisis of fair-value accounting: Making sense of the recent debate," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 826-834, August.
    12. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    13. Gunther Gebhardt & Zoltan Novotny-Farkas, 2011. "Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Accounting Quality of European Banks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3-4), pages 289-333, April.
    14. Mary Barth & Wayne Landsman, 2010. "How did Financial Reporting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 399-423.
    15. Juliusz Jablecki, 2009. "The impact of Basel I capital requirements on bank behavior and the efficacy of monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 2(1), pages 16-35, June.
    16. Bornemann, Sven & Kick, Thomas & Pfingsten, Andreas & Schertler, Andrea, 2015. "Earnings baths by CEOs during turnovers: empirical evidence from German savings banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 188-201.
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    More about this item


    Unternehmensbewertung; Due Diligence; Monte-Carlo Simulation; Delphi-Methode; Szenarioanalyse; Sensitivitätsanalyse; Expertenbefragung; Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung; Simulationssoftware; valuation; due diligence; monte-carlo method; simulation; business forecast; forecast uncertainty; scenario analysis; sensitivity analysis; probability distribution; combining probabilities; expert judgment;

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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