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On a definition of trend

Author

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  • Silva Lopes, Artur

Abstract

Several reasons explain the absence of a precise, complete and widely accepted definition of trend for economic time series, and the existence of two major disparate models is one of the most important. A recent operational proposal tried to overcome this difficulty resorting to a statistical test with good asymptotic properties against both those alternatives. However, this proposal may be criticized because it rests on a tool for inductive, not deductive, inference. Besides criticizing this recent definition, drawing heavily on previous ones, the paper provides a new general proposal, more complete, containing several necessary but no sufficient condition(s). A version specialized to certain macroeconomic time series is also presented and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Lopes, Artur, 2026. "On a definition of trend," EconStor Preprints 344307, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:344307
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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