IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/270641.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does External Debt Drive Inflation in Sudan? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric ARDL approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy
  • Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings: The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically impact inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications: The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/Value: To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Does External Debt Drive Inflation in Sudan? Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric ARDL approaches," EconStor Preprints 270641, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:270641
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2017. "Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 774-790, November.
    4. Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2020. "Infation, default and sovereign debt: The role of denomination and ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Abdalla Sirag & Norashidah Mohamed Nor, 2017. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through in Sudan: Does Inflation React Differently during Periods of Currency Depreciation?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 446-457, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Edward J. Green & Richard M. Todd, 2001. "Thoughts on the Fed's role in the payment system," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 12-27.
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2014. "Public debt and social security: Level of formality matters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 490-507.
    4. Willem Buiter, 1987. "Fiscal Policy in Open, Interdependent Economies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), Economic Policy in Theory and Practice, chapter 3, pages 101-144, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Roque B. Fernández, 1991. "What Have Populists Learned from Hyperinflation?," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 121-149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Philip R. Lane, 1999. "What Determines the Nominal Exchange Rate? Some Cross Sectional Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 118-138, February.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem & Sengonul, Ahmet, 2023. "The impact of exchange rates on Turkish imports and exports," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 231-249.
    8. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    9. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    10. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    11. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
    12. Ms. Francesca Castellani & Mr. Xavier Debrun, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2001/205, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
    14. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Marco Bassetto, 2002. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2167-2195, November.
    16. Ricardo Reis, 2016. "Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens?," Discussion Papers 1701, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    17. Jean‐Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba, 2018. "Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2755-2784, November.
    18. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November.
    19. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
    20. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "Fiscal Balance During Inflation, Disinflation, and Immigration: Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1996/033, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Debt; Exchange rate; Inflation; Money supply; NARDL; Sudan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:270641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.