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A Century of Global Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • William Goetzmann
  • Philippe Jorion

Abstract

The expected return on equity capital is possibly the most important driving factor in asset allocation decisions. Yet, the long-term estimates we typically use are derived from U.S. data only. There are reasons to suspect, however, that these estimates of return on capital are subject to survivorship, as the United States is arguably the most successful capitalist system in the world; most other countries have been plagued by political upheaval, war, and financial crises. The purpose of this paper is to provide estimates of return on capital from long-term histories for world equity markets. By putting together a variety of sources, we collected a database of capital appreciation indexes for 39 markets with histories going back as far back as the l920s. Our results are striking. We find that the United States has by far the highest uninterrupted real rate of appreciation of all countries, at about 5 percent annually. For other countries, the median real appreciation rate is about 1.5 perce

Suggested Citation

  • William Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "A Century of Global Stock Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm53, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2000.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:ysm53
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    File URL: https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2490.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gollier, Christian & Schlesinger, Harris, 2002. "Changes in risk and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 747-760, May.
    2. Bodnar, Gordon & Dumas, Bernard & Marston, Richard, 2003. "Cross-Border Valuation: The International Cost of Equity Capital," Working Papers 03-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2001. "Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-215, October.
    4. Jean-Pierre Danthine & John B. Donaldson & Paolo Siconolfi, 2005. "Distribution Risk and Equity Returns," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 05.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    5. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-32, March.
    6. Mikhail Samonov & Nonna Sorokina, 2024. "A century of asset allocation crash risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 383-406, July.
    7. Alier, Max & Vittas, Dimitri, 2000. "Personal pension plans and stock market volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2463, The World Bank.
    8. Jose Carlos Costa & Maria Eugenia Mata & David Justino, 2009. "Portuguese average cost of capital," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp543, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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