Psychological evidence suggests that people’s learning behavior is often prone to a “myside bias”or “irrational belief persistence”in contrast to learning behavior exclusively based on objective data. In the context of Bayesian learning such a bias may result in diverging posterior beliefs and attitude polarization even if agents receive identical information. Such patterns cannot be explained by the standard model of rational Bayesian learning that implies convergent beliefs. As our key contribution, we therefore develop formal models of Bayesian learning with psychological bias as alternatives to rational Bayesian learning. We derive conditions under which beliefs may diverge in the learning process and thus conform with the psychological evidence. Key to our approach is the assumption of ambiguous beliefs that are formalized as non-additive probability measures arising in Choquet expected utility theory. As a speci…c feature of our approach, our models of Bayesian learning with psychological bias reduce to rational Bayesian learning in the absence of ambiguity.
|Date of creation:||07 Nov 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||We thank Elias Khalil for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support by the German|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (49) (0) 621-292-2547
Fax: (49) (0) 621-292-5594
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/
More information through EDIRC
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001.
"An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns,"
01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
- Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "An Exploration of the Effects of Pessimism and Doubt on Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 8132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tonks, Ian, 1981.
"Bayesian Learning and the Optimal Investment Decision of the Firm,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
192, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Tonks, Ian, 1983. "Bayesian Learning and the Optimal Investment Decision of the Firm," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369a), pages 87-98, Supplemen.
- Morris, Stephen, 1994. "Trade with Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1327-47, November.
- Schmeidler, David, 1989.
"Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
- David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
- Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2004.
"Investment Behavior under Ambiguity: The Case of Pessimistic Decision Makers,"
MEA discussion paper series
04060, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2006. "Investment behavior under ambiguity: The case of pessimistic decision makers," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 111-130, September.
- Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2004. "Investment Behavior under Ambiguity: The Case of Pessimistic Decision Makers," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-31, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Marciano Siniscalchi, 2006.
"Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity,"
1430, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1996.
"Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
470, David K. Levine.
- Epstein, Larry G, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608, July.
- John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2002.
"Wealth Accumulation and the Propensity to Plan,"
NBER Working Papers
8920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Milgrom & Nancy L.Stokey, 1979.
"Information, Trade, and Common Knowledge,"
377R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Fudenberg, D. & Kreps, D.M., 1992.
"Learning Mixed Equilibria,"
92-13, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Vijay Krishna & Tomas Sjostrom, 1995.
"On the Convergence of Fictitious Play,"
Game Theory and Information
- Sjostrom, T. & Krishna, V., 1995. "On the Convergence of Ficticious Play," Papers 04-95-07, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Vijay Krishna & Tomas Sjostrom, 1995. "On the Convergence of Fictitious Play," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1717, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Vijay Krishna & T. Sjostrom, 2010. "On the Convergence of Fictitious Play," Levine's Working Paper Archive 417, David K. Levine.
- Neeman, Zvika, 1996. "Approximating Agreeing to Disagree Results with Commonp-Beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 162-164, January.
- Wakker, Peter P, 2001. "Testing and Characterizing Properties of Nonadditive Measures through Violations of the Sure-Thing Principle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 1039-59, July.
- Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
- Marciano Siniscalchi, 2001. "Bayesian Updating for General Maxmin Expected Utility Preferences," Discussion Papers 1366, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 1999.
"E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox,"
Theory and Decision,
Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 107-138, April.
- Viscusi, W. Kip, 1985. "A Bayesian perspective on biases in risk perception," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 59-62.
- Alexander Zimper, 2007. "Half empty, half full and the possibility of agreeing to disagree," Working Papers 58, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993.
"Updating Ambiguous Beliefs,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
- Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-56, December.
- Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carsten Schmidt)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Carsten Schmidt to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.