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Precio de la tierra con presión urbana: Un modelo para España

Listed author(s):
  • Esther Decimavilla

    (Universidad de Valladolid)

  • Carlos San Juan Mesonada

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • Stefan Sperlich

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Land prices with urban sprawl: a model for Spain The paper describes the agricultural land price to identify the explanatory variables of the recent cycle in Spain. The key variables in our panel data model are location and expected farm rents as fundamentals and the housing prices and increases in the irrigated area as non fundamentals dependant variables. The demographic growth is also a relevant explanatory variable in the regions. The price cycle is also related with the specialization path of the regions and the impact of the integration in the CAP. The novelty of the paper relay on use of panel data models to identify fundamental factors related with agricultural productivity (expected agricultural rents) and location and no fundamental factors or speculative like (housing price, the irrigate area and the population) using regional data by type of land. The fundamental and non fundamental dependant variables are identify and the results are related with the regional and county specialization. RESUMEN La novedad de este trabajo consiste en identificar, mediante técnicas de datos de panel, factores no fundamentales (precios de la vivienda, creación de regadíos, cambio demográfico) que, además de los fundamentales, (ingresos esperados, costes de producción) determinan el valor de cada tipo de tierras y su productividad en cada región. En definitiva se trata de cuantificar que parte de la subida de precios observada se justifica por elementos “internos”, relacionados con la renta agraria esperada, y cual proviene de elementos externos o especulativos (cambio de uso del suelo). Palabras clave: Precios del suelo, competencia por la tierra, especulación urbana, datos de panel, precio de la vivienda, productividad agraria, regadíos, especialización regional. Estudiamos los precios de mercado de las tierras para uso agrario y elaboramos un modelo de datos de panel para identificar las variables que determinan la evolución de estos precios en España. La determinación del precio de la tierra es compleja, en nuestro modelo identificamos como variables fundamentales la evolución de los ingresos esperados por los agricultores y la localización geográfica, y como no fundamentales o especulativos la presión urbanizadora y el incremento del área de regadío, que tienen un impacto significativo. El crecimiento demográfico es otras de las variables significativas en el modelo. Además tratamos de describir los elementos del ciclo de precios que están más relacionados con el proceso de especialización productiva de las regiones, ya que el período estudiado coincide con la aceleración de la especialización en el ámbito regional y la integración en la PAC.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0512010.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 23 Dec 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0512010
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32. Graphs
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