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Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises: Does Representativeness Cause Overreaction?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kaestner

    (GESEM, Center for Research in Finance, Montpellier University, France)

Abstract

Behavioral Finance aims to explain empirical anomalies by introducing investor psychology as a determinant of asset pricing. This study provides strong evidence that anomalous stock price behavior following earnings announcements is due to a representativeness bias. It investigates current and past earnings surprises and subsequent market reaction for listed US companies over the period 1983-1999. The results suggest that investors overreact to past earnings surprises. As, on average, extreme past surprises are not confirmed by actual earnings figures, they are followed by stock market reactions of the opposite sign. Moreover, the longer the similar earnings surprise series, the higher the subsequent reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kaestner, 2005. "Anomalous Price Behavior Following Earnings Surprises: Does Representativeness Cause Overreaction?," Finance 0505018, EconWPA, revised 03 Oct 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505018
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0505/0505018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    2. Lee, Inmoo, 1997. " Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1439-1466, September.
    3. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    4. Ikenberry, David L. & Rankine, Graeme & Stice, Earl K., 1996. "What Do Stock Splits Really Signal?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(03), pages 357-375, September.
    5. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    6. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    7. repec:hrv:faseco:30747159 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:6:y:1968:i:2:p:159-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral finance; overreaction; representativeness bias; earnings announcements;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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