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A Panel Data Analysis of General Elections Under Multi Party Electoral College


  • Jayesh Kumar

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)


We analyze the probability of an incumbents winning in the consecutive election, under the assumption that all individual candidates are equally likely (i.e. random selection) when they are from the same party. We estimate the probability of winning by ruling party. Using Indian panel data from 1967-1999. We find that incumbents have better log-odds if they contest on behalf of national parties , researved seats and with higher polling percentage.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayesh Kumar, 2003. "A Panel Data Analysis of General Elections Under Multi Party Electoral College," Experimental 0304001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0304001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Suse-Linux PdfLatex; to print on HP/PostScript; pages: 22 ; figures: included.

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    electoral system; incumbents; GEE-population averaged model and panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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