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A Panel Data Analysis of General Elections Under Multi Party Electoral College


  • Jayesh Kumar

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)


We analyze the probability of an incumbents winning in the consecutive election, under the assumption that all individual candidates are equally likely (i.e. random selection) when they are from the same party. We estimate the probability of winning by ruling party. Using Indian panel data from 1967-1999. We find that incumbents have better log-odds if they contest on behalf of national parties , researved seats and with higher polling percentage.

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  • Jayesh Kumar, 2003. "A Panel Data Analysis of General Elections Under Multi Party Electoral College," Experimental 0304001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0304001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Hugh Kelley & Daniel Friedman, 2002. "Learning to Forecast Price," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 556-573, October.
    6. Roth, Alvin E., 1993. "The Early History of Experimental Economics," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 184-209, September.
    7. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2002. "Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0203001, EconWPA, revised 15 Aug 2002.
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    More about this item


    electoral system; incumbents; GEE-population averaged model and panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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