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The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence

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  • Vincenzo Di Maro

    (University di Napoli Parthenope)

Abstract

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems affecting standard structural approach. In particular the paper investigates whether permanent employment shift across Italian industrial sector [measured by the Neumann and Topel (1991)'s employment-based dispersion index] has an effect on unemployment. Among the findings of this paper we emphasize that sectoral employment shifts affect unemployment both in the long- and in the short-term. Moreover, we find that the effect of sectoral reallocation on the unemployment rate occurs only after some delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Di Maro, 2002. "The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence," Econometrics 0207001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0207001
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 40; figures: included. 27 pages of body text, PDF, figures included within the text
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    Keywords

    Macroeconometrics; Employment Shifts; Italian Economy; NAIRU; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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