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The Estimation Of The Nairu And The Effect Of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence


  • Vincenzo Di Maro

    () (Department of Economic Studies, Parthenope University of Naples)


This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems affecting standard structural approach. In particular the paper investigates whether permanent employment shift across Italian industrial sector [measured by the Neumann and Topel (1991)'s employment-based dispersion index] has an effect on unemployment. Among the findings of this paper we emphasize that sectoral employment shifts affect unemployment both in the long- and in the short-term. Moreover, we find that the effect of sectoral reallocation on the unemployment rate occurs only after some delay.
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  • Vincenzo Di Maro, 2002. "The Estimation Of The Nairu And The Effect Of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence," Working Papers 7_2002, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:prt:wpaper:7_2002

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    2. Antonio Garofalo & R. Plasman & Concetto Paolo Vinci, 2000. "Reducing Working Time In An Efficiency Wage Economy With A Dual Labour Market," Working Papers 7_2000, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    3. Madeline Zavodny, 1999. "Unions and the wage-productivity gap," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 44-53.
    4. Danielle Bourlange & Gilbert Cette & Gérard Kremer & Dominique Taddei, 1990. "Les principales relations entre les degrés d'utilisation des facteurs de production," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 231(1), pages 71-88.
    5. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
    6. Holden, Steinar, 1988. " Local and Central Wage Bargaining," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 93-99.
    7. repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bosch, Gerhard & Lehndorff, Steffen, 2001. "Working-Time Reduction and Employment: Experiences in Europe and Economic Policy Recommendations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 209-243, March.
    9. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-193.
    10. Muysken, Joan & van Veen, Tom, 1996. " Efficiency Wages and Local Wage Bargaining," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(1), pages 119-127, March.
    11. Antonio Garofalo & Concetto Paolo Vinci, 1999. "Orario Di Lavoro E Occupazione In Un Contesto Economico Bisettoriale," Working Papers 1_1999, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General


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