IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Geographic Spread of Influenza

Listed author(s):
  • Eric Bonabeau
  • Laurent Toubiana
  • Antoine Flahault
Registered author(s):

    How infectious diseases spread in space within one cycle of an epidemic is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to support theoretical approaches, because data is scarce. Weekly reports obtained since 1984 from a network of general practitioners spanning the entire French territory allows the analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza over a fine spatial scale. This analysis indicates that diffusion over long distances, possibly due to global transportation systems, is so quick that homogeneous global mixing occurs before the epidemic builds up within infected patches. A simple model in which the total number of cases is given by the empirical time series and cases are randomly assigned to patches according to the population weight of the patches exhibits the same spatiotemporal properties as real epidemic cycles: homogeneous mixing models constitute appropriate descriptions, except in the vicinity of the epidemic's peak, where geographic heterogeneities play a role. To appear in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B.

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Working Papers with number 99-01-004.

    in new window

    Date of creation: Jan 1999
    Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:99-01-004
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501

    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. Eric Bonabeau & Laurent Toubiana & Antoine Flahault, 1998. "Evidence for Global Mixing in Real Influenza Epidemics," Working Papers 98-07-061, Santa Fe Institute.
    2. repec:aph:ajpbhl:1986:76:11:1289-1292_9 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:99-01-004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.