IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting Labor Supply in Urban China: Integrating Demographic Dynamics and Socioeconomic Transition

  • Y. Xu
Registered author(s):

    China's urban labor market has been under growing pressure to meet the large job demands that are resulting from the Economic System Reform. For more than three decades during the Centrally Planned System, Chinese urban citizens have been guaranteed jobs by the government. Now, the crisis in the labor market might be the source of social unrest. Balancing the urban labor supply and demand has been considered not only an economic issue but also a political challenge. Therefore, a high quality forecast that aims at telling the labor supply dynamic is much needed. By integrating demographic and socioeconomic factors into one forecast model, this research examines the labor force development in urban China to the year 2020. The research shows that in the following 20 years, China's urban labor supply tends to grow at the rate of 2% per year. The development of the labor force tends to be most sensitive to the movement of three factors, namely, urbanization, expansion in higher education and the establishment of a National Social Security System. Fertility and mortality would only make a small impact on the future urban labor market. Urbanization is likely to be the major factor responsible for increasing the number in the urban labor force. The growth in higher education, which can delay the time that young people enter the labor market, could function as a buffer to reduce the tension in the labor market and, at the same time, improve labor quality. The forecast also shows that the income reform and the forthcoming National Social Security System appear crucial to the female labor supply dynamic. They make it possible to change the family labor supply division and thus alter female labor force participation from the plateau pattern to the M-pattern.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-011.ps
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir00011.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Feb 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00011
    Contact details of provider: Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
    Phone: +43-2236-807-0
    Fax: +43-2236-71313
    Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. H.M. Yousif & A. Goujon & W. Lutz, 1996. "Future Population and Education Trends in the Countries of North Africa," Working Papers rr96011, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.