IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Future Population and Education Trends in the Countries of North Africa


  • H.M. Yousif
  • A. Goujon
  • W. Lutz


The report provides a concise and comprehensive review of available data on past demographic trends in the region and combines this analysis with expert opinion on alternative future demographic trends (as described in Lutz, 1996) to calculate likely ranges of future population growth. A very important and innovative feature of this study is that it explicitly includes the educational status of the population in its projections. This is done by multistate population projections, a method that largely originated at IIASA. Educational projections are an important task in themselves because education, as the major component of human capital, is a key factor in national development and in society's ability to cope with arising problems. But the projection of education is also particularly suitable for the demographic cohort-component method because it is the past and the present school enrollment of the young cohorts that largely determines the future educational composition of the population. It turns out that, due to the large educational fertility differentials and the inter-cohort differences in education in the countries of North Africa, an explicit inclusion of education in projections makes the population projections more accurate. The study is not only relevant for the North African region and its neighbors; it also demonstrates that generally it is feasible and very useful to explicitly include education in population projections.

Suggested Citation

  • H.M. Yousif & A. Goujon & W. Lutz, 1996. "Future Population and Education Trends in the Countries of North Africa," Working Papers rr96011, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:rr96011

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. W. Lutz, 1996. "Challenges for Studying Population-Environment Interactions in the Arab Region," Working Papers wp96100, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    2. Y. Xu, 2000. "Forecasting Labor Supply in Urban China: Integrating Demographic Dynamics and Socioeconomic Transition," Working Papers ir00011, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. A. Goujon & A.B. Wils, 1996. "The Importance of Education in Future Population. Global Trends and Case Studies on Cape Verde, Sudan, and Tunisia," Working Papers wp96138, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. G-Y. Cao, 2000. "The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education," Working Papers ir00026, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    5. A. Goujon, 1997. "Population and Education Prospects in the Western Mediterranean Region (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip)," Working Papers ir97046, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:rr96011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.