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Aufwind im Westen Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas: Wichtige Wachstumsimpulse für Österreich

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  • Mario Holzner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Aufwind im Westen der MOSOEL In den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) klafft der Ausblick für das Wirtschaftswachstum auch weiterhin auseinander für die meisten der neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten (NMS) wird eine langsame Beschleunigung des BIP-Wachstums beginnend mit diesem Jahr erwartet. Für 2015 soll das Wachstum durchschnittlich auf 3% ansteigen, um 0,2 Prozentpunkte mehr als im Vorjahr. Die Erholung erfolgt um ein Jahr früher als erwartet. Wesentlicher Faktor ist die bessere Entwicklung in der Eurozone. Auch am Westbalkan wird eine (wenn auch weniger dynamische) Verbesserung der Wachstumsaussichten für die gesamte Prognoseperiode 2015-2017 erwartet. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung 2015 in Weißrussland, Kasachstan, Russland und der Ukraine wird düster ausfallen und zum Teil noch schlechter sein als bisher erwartet. Für diese Länder sind die mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsaussichten auch mit substantiellen Risiken behaftet. Insgesamt sollte aber das verstärkte Wachstum in den MOSOEL für die österreichische Wirtschaft als Nachfrageimpuls dienen. Insbesondere die NMS sind für Österreich von zunehmender Bedeutung. English Summary Western CESEE countries in the ascendant The outlook for GDP growth in the Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) region remains divergent we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth for most of the EU’s new Member States (NMS) starting this year. For 2015 growth is expected to increase to 3% on average, by 0.2 pp more as compared to last year. The recovery comes a year earlier than expected mainly based on favourable developments in the euro area. In the Western Balkans growth prospects will also improve over the whole forecast period 2015-2017, though slightly less dynamically. Growth performance in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in 2015, however, will be dismal and partly worse than expected; the medium-term outlook for these countries is also fairly uncertain with considerable downside risks. Overall though, we should expect stronger CESEE growth to act as a demand stimulus for the Austrian economy. The NMS in particular are of increasing importance for Austria.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Holzner, 2015. "Aufwind im Westen Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas: Wichtige Wachstumsimpulse für Österreich," wiiw Research Reports in German language 1, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahdi Ghodsi, 2020. "Is Austria’s economy locked-in in the CESEE region? Austria’s competitiveness at the micro-level," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 669-693, August.
    2. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Julia Grübler & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Armon Rezai & Roman Römisch, 2018. "Monthly Report No. 9/2018," wiiw Monthly Reports 2018-09, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic analysis; international trade; competitiveness; consumption; investment; savings; global financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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