Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Looking for Shelter from the Storm Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2020-21 Executive summary (p. I-VI) May 2020 interim forecast update (p. 1-3) 1. Global overview (by Richard Grieveson; p. 4-7) 2. Regional overview (by Richard Grieveson p. 8-28) Albania Double whammy lays the economy low (by Isilda Mara; p. 30-32) Belarus Risky strategy with uncertain outcomes (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 33-34) Bosnia and Herzegovina Complex governance structure contributing to foreign dependence (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 35-36) Bulgaria The shock will likely be passed on to the labour market (by Rumen Dobrinsky; p. 37-38) Croatia Rebound in GDP will require recovery in tourism (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 39-40) Czech Republic Paying a high price for its skewed production structure (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 41-42) Estonia Enough fiscal space to weather the crisis (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 43-44) Hungary Crisis management a zigzag course from day to day (by Sándor Richter; p. 45-46) Kazakhstan The state attempts to rescue the economy under a double burden (by Alexandra Bykova; p. 47-49) Kosovo COVID-19 knocks out the government (by Isilda Mara; p. 50-51) Latvia Laxer restrictions cannot prevent a deep recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 52-43) Lithuania Substantial government support to boost the economy after recession (by Sebastian Leitner; p. 54-55) Moldova Keeping low key (by Gábor Hunya; p. 56-57) Montenegro Tourism’s over-dominance exacerbating economic downturn (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 58-59) North Macedonia Recession looms as pandemic dents vital car industry (by Bernd Christoph Ströhm; p. 60-61) Poland Making the best of the epidemic (by Leon Podkaminer; p. 62-63) Romania Strict lockdown and soaring fiscal deficits (by Gábor Hunya; p. 64-65) Russia Facing a double shock (by Vasily Astrov; p. 66-67) Serbia Recent strong growth hits a wall (by Richard Grieveson; p. 68-69) Slovakia Grim outlook ahead (by Doris Hanzl-Weiss; p. 70-71) Slovenia Pandemic hits manufacturing and service sectors alike (by Hermine Vidovic; p. 72-73) Turkey Heading back into stormy weather (by Richard Grieveson; p. 74-75) Ukraine IMF assistance crucial to keep the economy afloat (by Olga Pindyuk; p. 76-77) 4. Appendix – Table Summary of CESEE key measures regarding COVID-19 as of 30th April, 2020 (pp. 78-82)