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Darkest before the dawn?

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Alexandra Bykova

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Rumen Dobrinsky

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Selena Duraković

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Doris Hanzl-Weiss

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Gabor Hunya

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Branimir Jovanović

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Niko Korpar

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sebastian Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sandor Richter

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Bernd Christoph Ströhm

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Maryna Tverdostup

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Currently, CESEE is in the grip of a strong wave of the pandemic, which has pushed health systems to breaking point and necessitated a new series of economically damaging lockdowns. However, the public health backdrop should improve by late Spring, as stringency measures and increased vaccine rollout allow economies to gradually re-open. CESEE should grow by 3.8% on aggregate in 2021, with most countries regaining their pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the year. Once the acute phase of the crisis passes, attention will return to existing challenges, including demographic decline, automation, digitalisation, institutional independence and the fallout from geopolitical tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Alexandra Bykova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Selena Duraković & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Gabor Hunya & Branimir Jovanović & Niko Korpar & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda Mara & Olga , 2021. "Darkest before the dawn?," wiiw Forecast Reports Spring2021, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2021
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/darkest-before-the-dawn-dlp-5752.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; China; Japan; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; Next Generation EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; digitalisation; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; short-time work schemes; exchange rates; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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