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Bracing for the Winter

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Alexandra Bykova

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Rumen Dobrinsky

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Selena Duraković

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Doris Hanzl-Weiss

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Marcus How
  • Gabor Hunya

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Branimir Jovanović

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Niko Korpar

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sebastian Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Bernhard Moshammer
  • Beate Muck

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sandor Richter

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Bernd Christoph Ströhm

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Maryna Tverdostup

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Nina Vujanović
  • Zuzana Zavarská

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Adam Żurawski

Abstract

Economic growth in CESEE in the first half of 2022 was better than expected, and our growth forecasts for this year have been mostly revised upwards. However, global economic conditions are increasingly gloomy, and the worst is yet to come. Inflation is eroding real incomes, consumer confidence is evaporating, business sentiment is deteriorating, interest rates are soaring, and the fiscal space is shrinking. The war in Ukraine will most probably continue at least through 2023, with virtually no scope for a peace agreement. And on top of all that, there is the energy crunch. The CESEE region will probably grow only by 0.3% next year, close to the 0.2% growth that we assume for the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Alexandra Bykova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Selena Duraković & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Marcus How & Gabor Hunya & Branimir Jovanović & Niko Korpar & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda, 2022. "Bracing for the Winter," wiiw Forecast Reports Autumn2022, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2022
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/bracing-for-the-winter-dlp-6364.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CESEE Central and Eastern Europe; economic forecast; Western Balkans; CIS; Ukraine; Russia; Turkey; EU; euro area; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; COVID; labour markets; unemployment; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia sanctions; commodity prices; inflation; price controls; trade disruptions; Ukrainian refugees; energy crisis; gas; electricity; monetary policy; fiscal policy; impact on Austria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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