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No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Alexandra Bykova

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Rumen Dobrinsky

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Doris Hanzl-Weiss

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Philipp Heimberger

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Gabor Hunya

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Branimir Jovanović

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Niko Korpar

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sebastian Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sandor Richter

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Bernd Christoph Ströhm

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Most of CESEE withstood the first wave of the pandemic better than Western Europe. However, the medium-term outlook is hugely uncertain. After an estimated contraction of 4.5% this year, the region should grow by 3.1% in 2021 and by 3.3% in 2022, with risks clearly on the downside. Aside from the potential for further lockdowns, the pandemic will leave lasting legacies in the form of depressed demand for many services, requiring significant further government support.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Alexandra Bykova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Philipp Heimberger & Gabor Hunya & Branimir Jovanović & Niko Korpar & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda Mara & Olg, 2020. "No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large," wiiw Forecast Reports Autumn2020, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2020
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/no-quick-recovery-in-sight-with-coronavirus-risks-looming-large-dlp-5441.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasily Astrov & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda Mara & Hermine Vidovic, 2021. "How do Economies in EU-CEE Cope with Labour Shortages?," wiiw Research Reports 452, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CESEE; economic forecast; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; EU; euro area; CIS; China; Japan; US; convergence; business cycle; coronavirus; Next Generation EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; digitalisation; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; short-time work schemes; exchange rates; monetary policy; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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