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The Exchange Rate : Why It Matters for Structural Transformation and Growth in Ethiopia

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  • Haile,Fiseha

Abstract

Ethiopia has achieved sustained high growth for more than a decade. At the same time, the country has been facing several economic challenges, including falling exports, chronic foreign currency shortages, as well as a slow pace of structural transformation. In recent years, the already overvalued birr has appreciated sharply in real terms, partly driven by the appreciation of the dollar, thereby making Ethiopia?s competitiveness and industrialization drive more difficult. In response to these challenges, this paper looks at the question of why the real exchange rate is a useful policy instrument. The analysis suggests that Ethiopia needs a more flexible exchange rate policy. A competitive or undervalued exchange rate is important in bringing about productivity-enhancing structural change. There is robust evidence that a real devaluation stimulates exports in general and manufacturing exports in particular, improves the trade and current account balances, and spurs economic growth. Currency undervaluation is a second-best policy intervention that can help offset some of the key constraints to manufacturing growth prevalent in low-income countries and speed up structural transformation. However, exchange rate adjustments need to take into account the increase in the cost of capital imports and debt burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Haile,Fiseha, 2019. "The Exchange Rate : Why It Matters for Structural Transformation and Growth in Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8868, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8868
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    Cited by:

    1. Gruber, Aaron, 2023. "Navigating a world of constraints: Developmentalism, industrial policy, and the limits to structural transformation in Ethiopia," ÖFSE-Forum, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE), volume 87, number 287748.
    2. Akpansung, Aniekan O., 2021. "Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rates on Balance of Payments: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    3. Peter Nuhu & Dramani Bukari, 2021. "An analysis of export, import and exchange rate oscillation in Ghana," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 301-327, September.
    4. Krishnan, Pramila & Gebrewolde, Tewodros & Koelle, Michael & Mengistu, Andualem Telaye, 2020. "Currency Shocks and Firm Behaviour in Ethiopia and Uganda," CEPR Discussion Papers 15524, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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