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Employment multipliers over the business cycle

Author

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  • Nguyen,Ha Minh
  • Soh,Jiaming

Abstract

This paper estimates dynamic employment multipliers in a U.S. county during 1998-2015. On average, one exogenous tradable job gain creates 1.1 jobs in the rest of the county economy in the same year, but is offset by losses of 0.23 job one year later and 0.32 job two years later. The multiplier is modest during the 2002-2007 boom and is large during the Great Recession. It is smaller in the initial years of the Recovery but is larger in the latter years. Uncertainty and credit constraints are two possible hindrances to the propagation of job gains during the Recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen,Ha Minh & Soh,Jiaming, 2017. "Employment multipliers over the business cycle," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8105, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8105
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/186281497883831608/pdf/WPS8105.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Taner Osman & Tom Kemeny, 2022. "Local job multipliers revisited," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 150-170, January.

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