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Weak instruments in growth regressions : implications for recent cross-country evidence on inequality and growth

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  • Kraay,Aart C.

Abstract

This paper revisits four recent cross-country empirical studies on the effects of inequality on growth. All four studies report strongly significant negative effects, using the popular system generalized method of moments estimator that is frequently used in cross-country growth empirics. This paper shows that the internal instruments relied on by this estimator in these inequality-and-growth regressions are weak, and that weak instrument-consistent confidence sets for the effect of inequality on growth include a wide range of positive and negative values. This suggests that strong conclusions about the effect of inequality on growth? in either direction?cannot be drawn from these studies. This paper also systematically explores a wide range of alternative sets of internal instruments, and finds that problems of weak instruments are pervasive across these alternatives. More generally, the paper illustrates the importance of documenting instrument strength, basing inferences on procedures that are robust to weak instruments, and considering alternative instrument sets when using the system generalized method of moments estimator for cross-country growth empirics.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraay,Aart C., 2015. "Weak instruments in growth regressions : implications for recent cross-country evidence on inequality and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7494, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7494
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    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Campomanes, 2022. "Inequality and Growth: How Social Mobility Reshapes The Main Theoretical Channels," Working Papers 599, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. Haiyan Lin & Markus Brueckner, 2024. "Inequality and growth in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 539-585, February.
    3. Gründler, Klaus & Scheuermeyer, Philipp, 2018. "Growth effects of inequality and redistribution: What are the transmission channels?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 293-313.
    4. Simplice Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2023. "Health performance and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: new evidence based on quantile regressions," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(12), pages 1655-1671, May.
    5. Bianca VEZENTAN, 2021. "Analysis Of Economic Growth And Income Inequality In Romania In The Period 1990-2019," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 155-165, December.
    6. Jaejoon Woo, 2023. "The long-run determinants of redistribution: evidence from a panel of 47 countries in 1967–2014," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1811-1860, April.
    7. Andrew Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yorbol Yakhshilikov, 2018. "Redistribution, inequality, and growth: new evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 259-305, September.
    8. Roy van der Weide & Branko Milanovic, 2018. "Inequality is Bad for Growth of the Poor (but Not for That of the Rich)," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 507-530.
    9. Toni Juuti, 2022. "The role of financial development in the relationship between income inequality and economic growth: an empirical approach using cross-country panel data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 985-1021, June.
    10. Enea Baselgia & Reto Foellmi, 2022. "Inequality and growth: a review on a great open debate in economics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-5, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Ferreira,Francisco H. G., 2022. "The Analysis of Inequality in the Bretton Woods Institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10149, The World Bank.
    12. Bergstrom,Katy Ann, 2020. "The Role of Inequality for Poverty Reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9409, The World Bank.
    13. Moller, Lars Christian & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2017. "Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—The Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 198-215.
    14. Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis Servén, 2022. "Growth, inequality and poverty: a robust relationship?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 725-791, August.
    15. Jaejoon Woo, 2020. "Inequality, redistribution, and growth: new evidence on the trade-off between equality and efficiency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 2667-2707, June.
    16. Blotevogel, Robert & Imamoglu, Eslem & Moriyama, Kenji & Sarr, Babacar, 2022. "Income inequality measures and economic growth channels," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. P. Dorian Owen, 2017. "Evaluating Ingenious Instruments for Fundamental Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth and Development," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-33, September.
    18. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2021. "Gender equality and economic complexity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    19. Christian H Ebeke, 2023. "Intergenerational Mobility and the Growth–Inequality–Poverty Nexus in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 99-112.
    20. Aiyar, Shekhar & Ebeke, Christian, 2020. "Inequality of opportunity, inequality of income and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    21. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2021. "A supply-demand model of public sector size," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    22. Mendez Ramos,Fabian, 2019. "Uncertainty in Ex-Ante Poverty and Income Distribution : Insights from Output Growth and Natural Resource Country Typologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8841, The World Bank.
    23. Rafael Carranza, 2020. "Inequality of Outcomes, Inequality of Opportunity, and Economic Growth," Working Papers 534, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pro-Poor Growth; Arts&Music; Debt Markets; Inequality; Poverty Impact Evaluation;
    All these keywords.

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