IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3145.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alternative paths to structural adjustment in Uzbekistan in a three-gap framework

Author

Listed:
  • Ranaweera,Thilakaratna

Abstract

The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the domestic, and external factors that determine economic outcomes, and welfare. The author attempts to quantify two policy scenarios-gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy. He finds that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most performance, and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate, and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The author also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing, and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbekistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranaweera,Thilakaratna, 2003. "Alternative paths to structural adjustment in Uzbekistan in a three-gap framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3145, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/756961468781155993/pdf/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1992. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 395-431, June.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 277-301.
    7. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1999. "The Uzbek Growth Puzzle," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-3.
    8. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 277-301.
    10. Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & G√ľnther Taube, 1998. "Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan; Past Performance and Future Prospects," IMF Working Papers 98/132, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks&Banking Reform; Financial Intermediation; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Stabilization; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.